A wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries has knocked out up to 20% of the country’s refining capacity, triggering a severe fuel shortage, SİA reports citing Politico.
Long queues have been reported at filling stations in several regions, with prices rising 20-25% above official statistics.
Analysts estimate Russia is losing around 700,000-750,000 barrels of oil per day, in part due to damage inflicted on Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery and Lukoil’s Volgograd facility. Overall processing has dropped to about 5.1 million barrels per day, compared with the usual 5.6 million. In response, authorities have extended a ban on gasoline exports until September, depriving the Kremlin of foreign currency revenues.
Ukraine has been targeting oil infrastructure for more than a year, but the latest strikes have had a particularly visible impact. Sanctions and the lack of Western equipment are complicating repairs, while European Union (EU) diplomats suggest pressure on Russia’s fuel sector could be one of the few ways to push President Vladimir Putin toward negotiations.
Western states are preparing new measures, with Brussels discussing a 19th sanctions package, potentially including tariffs modeled on U.S. restrictions. Meanwhile, strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline have already reduced supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, sparking diplomatic tensions within the EU.
Analysts note that Russia may partially offset the losses through supplies from Belarus and refinery repairs, but warn that if the attacks continue into autumn, the consequences could become critical. Economists predict rising budget shortfalls and growing social unrest.
Ukrainian experts argue that by mid-autumn, the fuel crisis could force the Kremlin to consider talks. However, military analysts caution that the decisive factor will be the intensity of future strikes.
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