As tensions in Eastern Europe continue to evolve, the breakaway region of Transnistria, which has been supported by Russia since 1990, appears to be gradually distancing itself from Moscow’s influence, SİA reports citing the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Once firmly aligned with Moscow’s interests, the region’s recent developments suggest a significant shift in its political and economic orientation.
CEPA writes that Moscow’s weak response to the January gas crisis and Moldova’s increasing reliance on the European Union for trade and energy have led to a reassessment of Russia’s strategy in the region.
A recent survey conducted in the fall of 2024 revealed that 45% of Transnistria’s residents favored reunification with Moldova, while 38% were opposed. The situation worsened as Moscow failed to ensure consistent energy supplies, further eroding its authority.
Gazprom’s assistance arrived only after a month, with Moldova immediately transmitting three million cubic meters of gas to the region. Meanwhile, the European Union allocated €30 million to support Transnistria’s energy needs, and Vadim Krasnoselski, the region’s leader, publicly expressed gratitude to Brussels for its unprecedented aid.
Today, nearly 77% of Transnistria’s exports are directed toward the European Union, while trade with Russia has nearly collapsed. Moscow’s propaganda advantage has also diminished; Tiraspol was compelled to relax transit restrictions, release political prisoners, remove eleven border checkpoints, and allow Moldova’s national television channel, Moldova-1, to broadcast freely. These developments indicate a notable decline in Moscow’s influence over the region.
The shifting dynamics come at a crucial time for Moldova, which is preparing for parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28. The vote will serve as a litmus test not only for Moldova’s pro-European course but also for the future of the Transnistrian conflict and the possibility of reunification. Polls show that 74% of Moldovan citizens view Russia unfavorably, while 90% hold a positive attitude toward the European Union, reflecting a clear tilt toward the West.
Despite these changes, Moscow continues to support pro-Russian politicians and oligarchs, including Ilan Shor, a fugitive businessman operating from Moscow. However, Moscow’s inability to effectively protect its allies or bolster its economic influence in the region suggests that its grip may be weakening over time.
The current mood in Transnistria presents an opportunity for Moldova and the European Union. Economic integration initiatives, new infrastructure projects, and increased access to alternative sources of information could gradually facilitate the region’s peaceful reintegration with Moldova.
As the political landscape shifts, the key question remains: will Moscow’s influence continue to wane, or will it find new ways to reassert control over this frozen conflict? The coming months will be decisive in shaping the future of Transnistria and Moldova’s path forward.
Bütün xəbərlər Facebook səhifəmizdə
.jpg)
USD
EUR
GBP
RUB