Fitch Ratings assumes production of the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) will grow by 4% in 2022 and 5% in 2023, mainly due to higher natural gas output, and will remain stable thereafter, SİA informs referring to the rating agency’s website.
“SOCAR's oil and gas output increased by 7% to 282,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021 yoy with a broadly similar increase for gas and liquids. This comes on top of Azerbaijan's 1% increase in oil output and 23% higher gas production. Azerbaijan's oil production has historically decreased and we do not expect this to materially change. The higher gas output is mainly due to the start of production at Shah Deniz II field in 2018 with additional production areas subsequently added,” the agency noted.
Fitch forecasts Brent crude at $100/bbl in 2022, $85/bbl in 2023, $65/bbl in 2024, and $53/bbl in subsequent years.
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