According to forecasts of Fitch Ratings, in 2025, the gross public debt of Azerbaijan will amount to 21.8% of GDP, SİA informs.
This level is expected to remain sustainable in the medium term.
According to the agency's forecast, in 2026 the indicator will decrease to 21.3% of GDP, but in the following years it will start to grow again: in 2027 - to 22.9% of GDP, in 2028 - to 24.7%, in 2029 - to 25.8%, in 2030 - to 26.4% of GDP.
According to Fitch, in 2024, the gross public debt also amounted to 21.8% of GDP.
At the same time, according to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the total public and publicly guaranteed debt of Azerbaijan in 2025 will reach 27.6% of GDP. According to the IMF, this indicator will continue to grow moderately in the following years: in 2026 - 28.6%, in 2027 - 28.9%, in 2028 - 29.1%, in 2029 - 29.6%, in 2030 - 29.4% of GDP.
According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of Azerbaijan, by the end of 2025, the total amount of Azerbaijan's public debt (external and internal) will reach $17.061 billion (22.2% of GDP), and by 2026 it will grow to $19.235 billion (20.1% of the projected GDP). According to official statistics, as of April 1, 2025, the total volume of Azerbaijan's public debt amounted to $15.663 billion.
Of this, external debt accounts for $5.075 billion, which corresponds to 6.6% of GDP, and internal debt - $10.588 billion or 13.8% of GDP. The distribution of external debt by maturity is as follows: 49.9% is due within the next 5 years, 44.2% - in the period from 5 to 10 years, 5.9% - for long-term obligations over 10 years.
By creditor, 63.3% of external debt is owed to multilateral financial institutions, 27% - to Eurobonds placed on external markets, 9.7% - to loans from bilateral financial institutions. The largest creditors are the Asian Development Bank (35.1%), followed by holders of Eurobonds (27%) and the World Bank (15.8%).
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