Turkey 2023: two strategic goals

Justice and Development Party (JDP) of Turkey with Recep Tayyib Erdogan at its helm had convened for the regular session. Notable ideas concerning the country’s future were forwarded during the event. Fundamental theses for Turkey’s strategic development were voiced.

"Great Nation"

Historic decision was adopted during the 4th convention of the ruling JDP. Main theme of the event was "Great Nation, Great power, 2023". That is precisely why most analysts had branded this theme as Turkey’s "road map".

There are several interesting aspects here. Presently there is a quite perplex geopolitical situation on the global arena. However in the Middle East the situation is even more intense. Critical processes are evolving in the countries of the region, with no signs of decline.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East seem more noteworthy in light of the struggle of superpowers for supremacy. Analysts speak of molding of the new world order and it is indeed an arduous task of unequivocally predicting the outcome of the geopolitical rivalry between such giants as the U.S., Russia and China.

Are Turkey’s confident aspirations substantiated under the circumstances? Abovementioned theme of the ruling party: is it for propaganda purposes only? Answers could be search for from the prism of key aspects of domestic and foreign policies pursued by Turkey as a state.

4th convention of the JDP took place on the backdrop of multiple domestic issues for Turkey. Acts of terrorism hamper the sustainable development of the country and threats for internal stability emerge. Key problem here is the sponsoring of terrorism from abroad by several states.

Prime Minister Receb Tayyip Erdogan has named France, Germany, Syria and Iran in that list. There have been speculations about Israel’s involvement in supporting PKK. It means that several countries, share vested interests in upholding the reign of terror in Turkey.

In this environment combating terrorism turns into multifaceted and arduous task. Does Turkey have the capacity to overcome the challenges? The government has high hopes. The Prime Minister is convinced that Turkey has all the means necessary to achieve the objectives. He also believes that process of expansion of civil rights in the country will contribute to the cause.

The essence of the "Great Nation" theme is therefore clarified thanks to those ideas. Turkey has targeted the establishment of a politically great nation. So the fostering of a democratically governed civil society is in line with the strategic targets defined by the ruling party. Therefore ethnic affiliation recedes into the background in the spirit of the current stage of modern history. However one point is worth of emphasizing.

The formation of a strong civil society with ethnic affiliation in the background is possible under the ideological concept that meets the demands of modern times. Is there such a concept available to JDP?

The experience shows that in Turkey there is an ideology that implies the efficient synthesis of Islam and democracy. For example in the Western geopolitical terminology the phrase "moderate Islam" is commonly used. However the essence is beyond the words.

The ultimate objective is to create an efficient model that would bind Islamic religious outlook with the democracy, as a modern political system. With JDP coming to power in 2002 it would be safe to say that they had succeeded, considering the achievements in the social-economic, cultural and moral-ethical areas. Thus, it may be concluded that the country has sufficient domestic potential to build a great nation.

But the problem goes beyond the domestic potential. There are number of countries aspiring for global leadership. Can Turkey compete in their ranks? Judging by his speech during the 4th convention of his party Prime Minister R.T. Erdogan sounded defiant about his country’s ability to compete.

"Great Power"

It is by 2023 that Turkey has set a target of elevating into the ranks of leading countries of the world based on social-economic performance. This is the definition of "great power". Unable to provide even 100 million USD in loans in 2002, Turkey is in the position to provide 5 billion USD loan to IMF in 2012. While EU countries are experiencing stagnation Prime Minister Erdogan announces that Turkish economy will grow at 5% in 2013, while declaring the intention to become world’s 5th economy by 2023.

Serious reforms are envisaged also in the area of governance. Wellbeing improvement of the citizens is said to be among the top priorities for JDP. It is noteworthy that experts believe that Turkey has the capacity to achieve targets set.

Prominent political scientist Z.Brzezinski considers Russia and Turkey among the leaders of near future. He advises the West to ensure closer engagement of both countries in integration processes. Turkey is suggested even as a key partner in the Orient. It means that Z.Brzezinski does not exclude the likelihood of Turkey becoming a world leader.

Ideas voiced during the ruling party convention regarding the Turkey-EU relations were especially interesting. Among the strategic goals JDP has clearly retained the thesis "EU accession has preserved its topicality".

However some experts are convinced that statements define very general outlook. In reality there is an assumption that Turkey is not interested in the EU. Main reason is that EU experiences crisis and stagnation and its very future looks obscure. Ankara will not take such a risk.

On the other hand the fate of the EU as a geopolitical power seems gloomy. What is the point of accession into the institution with clearly undefined geopolitical status, whereas Turkey aspires to become great power on its own? Ankara also realizes that the world is going towards a geopolitical model with multiple power centers. Some politicians and analysts even claim that "the process of the shaping of the new world order is in progress" (former Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs believes so). It would be insufficient for such countries as Turkey to bind to single power center in the multipolar world.

All of the aforementioned clearly demonstrate the historic nature of the 4th convention of JDP. Should this strategic course continue until 2023 (provided JDP retains power) chances of reaching the targets look quite high.

However, realistically, nowadays making concrete future prognosis is a risky business. The situation may take most unexpected turns. Francis Bacon once said: "Time is the greatest innovator". This is applicable to politics and geopolitics.

Newtimes.az