Pacific Ocean's Wick: TAIWAN - ANALYSIS

Will the US and China start a war over Taiwan and what will be the consequences for Ukraine?

The world is shaking, to say the least, boiling like a pot on a stove. At first glance, it can be understood that the world's superpowers, "underground" and "surface" organizations have started a race to destroy our world, or rather, humanity. The difference is not only in the methods, but also in how quickly it destroys. Hegemonic countries in the space family sometimes look for life on the Moon, sometimes on Mars, and sometimes on Earth-like planets, and when this is not available, they try to transfer colonies that will live in various types of devices to those planets. They spend billions of dollars for this. Those who are unable to enjoy the beauty of our planet, those who are tired of living on Earth without any equipment, those who deny what God has given to the human race are looking for ways to live on alien planets. This approach, this attitude manifests itself when a person is tired of life, and the state or states that control the world, are in no hurry to pay the trillions of dollars of debt they have received, but are ambitious to dominate the whole world, put both themselves and their citizens face-to-face with the rest of the world...

Reference: Taiwan is an island located 150 km from the Pacific Ocean and the east coast of China. From the international political and economic point of view, it belongs to the People's Republic of China. According to the form of government, it is a republic, the currency is the Taiwan yuan. The population is 22.2 million people. Trade partners are USA, Japan, Germany, Australia, Singapore and China. The main export products are electrical equipment and electronics. Imported oil consists of plastic masses, precision instruments, watches and so on. The largest city and capital is Taipei. Metallurgical, machine-building, radio-electrical engineering, oil refining, cement, chemical, and textile industries have developed in this city. The island of Taiwan was part of the Japanese Empire from 1895 to 1945 and was divided into several prefectures. After the defeat of Japan in the Second World War, the island was included in the Republic of China.

In recent years, the tension in US-China relations has been noticeable due to Taiwan. Although Taiwan is listed as part of China in international documents, the island's independence in foreign trade has prompted foreign powers to expand ties with Taipei. They even try to carry out everything from arms trade with the island country to other relations secretly from Beijing, without its consent. But the Chinese government showed sensitivity in this matter and issued serious warnings to those countries. Recently, Beijing has demanded that Washington cancel the plan to sell arms to Taipei and cut all ties with the Taiwanese military. A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Defense said that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an integral part of China. China demands that the US immediately cancel the plan to sell arms to Taiwan.

The United States has approved a $100 million contract to sell Patriot air defense systems to Taiwan. The situation around Taiwan has become tense due to the plans of the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to visit the island. Experts note that this could lead to war. The threat of a global military conflict in the world is becoming more real against the background of the increasing risk of a direct conflict between the United States and China over the island of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a separatist territory, supported by Washington.

Nancy Pelosi's intention to visit Taiwan has aggravated the situation. Beijing reacted very harshly to this. The Chinese side warned that if the speaker flies to Taiwan, the plane will be shot down, and if she uses ships as transport, the ship will be sunk.

Ahead of the speaker's Asia tour, China has begun large-scale military exercises, while Taiwan has put its aviation and air defense forces on alert. The US has sent a strike group led by the aircraft carrier "Ronald Reagan" to the South China Sea.

A few days ago, US President Joe Biden spoke with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for nearly two hours. The Chinese leader warned Biden about the inadmissibility of foreign interference in the relations between China and Taiwan. "He who plays with fire will surely burn himself," Xi Jinping told Biden. After that, in the official "Twitter" account of the 80th Army of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China, "Get ready for war!" short message was spread. On Saturday, Pelosi's plane left for Asia. Tens of thousands of people followed her flight path through the Flytradar service. Questions were asked about what would happen if the plane flew to Taiwan and was shot down, and there were many predictions about the start of the third world war. As a result, Pelosi listed the names of the countries she would visit, but did not mention Taiwan. The tension has eased a bit, but the anxiety hasn't gone away.

According to experts, neither China nor the United States need a war at this stage. The Americans do not want to get involved in a new conflict until the end of the conflict in Ukraine. China's economy, on the other hand, is still highly dependent on trade relations with the West. But given the intensity of passions, reasonable arguments against war may never work. Politicians put forward different versions of why the situation around Taiwan has become tense, whether the tension could lead to war between China and the United States, and how it will affect Ukraine.


"Hush, Nancy, this is China"

Taiwan is an island in the South China Sea where the Kuomintang party, led by Chiang Kai-shek, emigrated in 1949 after China's victory in the civil war. And there he established his own state - "Republic of China". China and the vast majority of other countries in the world, including Ukraine and the United States, consider Taiwan to be Chinese territory. At the same time, the Americans traditionally provide military support to Taiwan. The island has been under the secret patronage of the Americans for many decades. It is believed that if China attacks Taiwan, Washington will provide direct military support to the island nation. That is, the closeness of the USA to Taiwan is stricter than to Ukraine.

For a long time, China wants to repeat the operation it did with Hong Kong with Taiwan and integrate it into the PRC on the basis of the principle of "one country, two systems". There has been some progress in this direction in the past. However, in recent years, this desire has faded. There are forces in power in Taiwan that are determined to distance themselves from China and strengthen an informal alliance with the United States. Yes, Washington, which perceives China as its main rival, actively opposes the island's integration plans. Meanwhile behind the scenes, tensions around Taiwan are increasing.

Let's go back to what happened after Pelosi's plane took off. The relations between the two superpowers reached a peak when the landing gear of the plane heading towards Asia came off the ground. It is true that when Pelosi announced that she would visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, Taiwan was not included in this list. However, the Speaker may make the visit without prior notice. Nancy Pelosi's statements and claims on the plane were somehow slowed down as the plane approached China's airspace. Opponents even gave Pelosi "Hush, Nancy, this is China" call.

Now, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is considered impossible by experts. But they definitely don't say no. Chances are high that the Chinese government will follow through on its threat to shoot down Pelosi's plane. In this case, the US will either not give a symmetrical response (which could lead to war between the two countries), or it will have to come up with an "excuse", which will mean the global humiliation of America. In principle, under pressure from the Chinese, Pelosi's refusal to visit Taiwan can also be seen as a sign of humiliation and weakness. Republicans will, of course, interpret it that way, giving Democrats another reason to discredit them.


"Taiwan is more important to the United States than Ukraine"

Experts note that the current situation around Taiwan is extremely tense. This could have the most unexpected consequences, regardless of whether Pelosi flies to Taiwan or not. Stephen Flynn, director of the Global Resilience Institute at Northeastern University in Boston, said war between the United States and China is highly likely, noting that Beijing could decide to ensure that the rebel island it claims is fully under Beijing's control. "There is a risk of China taking over Taiwan and expanding into the Asia-Pacific region as China attempts to transform from a regional power to a global power. In general, in terms of security, the world is in a completely different strategic position. And we are in the nuclear age, so the risk of military conflict remains," Flynn said.

Chinese expert Tejun Zhang, a professor of international relations at the Shanghai Global Institute, also spoke about the threat of war over Taiwan regardless of Pelosi's visit: "Taiwan is more important to the interests of the United States than Ukraine, and a possible escalation could lead to a direct military response by the United States. Taiwan's GDP is three times the GDP of Ukraine, Taiwan is more technologically important than Ukraine in the region and in the region, especially as a major chip manufacturer, it is an IT center of the world." Geopolitically, East Asia is bipolar, with the US as the dominant maritime power and China as the dominant continental power. Taiwan is located between the two spheres. In this regard, whoever rules Taiwan will have an advantage over the other. It can be argued that Taiwan is more important to the US than Ukraine, both economically and strategically. Japan is also increasingly reluctant to unite Taiwan with mainland China. Because Tokyo considers the Taiwan Strait a part of its lifeline, especially in terms of security of energy transportation.

There is also the more likely scenario that China has no plans to start a major war against Taiwan and the US. Beijing's actions are presented as "enforcement of peace". That is, there is a plan to unite Taiwan with China according to the Hong Kong model - "one country, two systems".

According to another scenario, China will launch a large-scale attack both on Taiwan itself and on US military units. This will be followed by a large-scale war in East Asia. In fact, it seems that the main players - the United States and China - prefer a non-military solution to the conflict. However, the situation in the region is extremely explosive. An ill-timed match can ignite conflicts, turn them into full-scale war and even World War III, where nuclear weapons will be used.

V. VALI

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