ING Group, one of the largest banking groups in the Netherlands, predicts that GDP growth in Azerbaijan will remain in the range of 2-3% in the coming years, SİA informs.
Economic growth is forecast at 3% this year and 2.5% in 2026.
According to the ING, the mood in the consumption-driven sectors seems to remain positive thanks to continued growth in real income and employment, as well as fast retail credit expansion: "Meanwhile, as domestic retail loans are now 14% of GDP (23% of non-oil GDP) vs 8% (17%) in 2022, and growth in real terms has slowed from 23% YoY at the beginning of 2024 to 15-16% currently, consumption growth should moderate.”
ING Group experts say that corporate lending growth also slowed materially in 2024, reflecting a more cautious mood in some corporate segments. In the meantime, at 10% of GDP (16% of non-oil GDP), domestic corporate lending doesn’t seem to be the primary source of financing and is not a sign of an overall slowdown.
"The direct indicators of industrial confidence continue to show strong readings despite sluggish activity in the oil sector, most likely
reflecting the optimism surrounding Azerbaijan’s fiscal policy, which remains generous," ING said.
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