Eight OPEC+ countries will continue voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 mln barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 2025 to balance the oil market.
Only eight OPEC+ countries have complied with the 2.2 mln bpd oil production cut since the beginning of 2024: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
Starting in October 2024, these countries planned to gradually lift restrictions and restore production, and a timetable was drawn up accordingly. However, the production increase was first postponed to December, then to the end of 2024, and at the last OPEC+ ministerial meeting – to the end of the Q1 2025. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the actions of the OPEC+ are aimed at not destabilizing the oil market during the period of low winter demand.
According to the new oil output restoration schedule published on the OPEC website, the production increase is planned for the period from April 2025 to the end of September 2026. However, changes to this schedule are allowed depending on the oil market situation. In addition, the same eight OPEC+ countries will voluntarily reduce production by another 1.65 mln bpd until the end of 2026.
As for oil production quotas under the OPEC+ deal, the changes in 2025 will affect only one country – the UAE. Originally, this country was supposed to gradually increase production under its quota by 300,000 bpd from January 2025. Under the new plan, the UAE will begin increasing production in April 2025 and complete the process by the end of September 2026.
Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan did not fully comply with their commitments to voluntarily reduce oil production in 2024, so these countries committed to compensate for the excess production. This process began in August and is expected to last until the end of September 2025.
At the most recent OPEC+ meeting, these three countries had their compensation period extended to the end of June 2026. At the same time, they were required to submit updated offset plans to the OPEC Secretariat by the end of 2024. These plans have not yet been published.
According to the previous schedule, Russia was to compensate for excess oil production in the amount of 480,000 bpd, Kazakhstan – 699,000 bpd, and Iraq – 1.44 mln bpd.
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