France`s foreign policy is a prisoner of the Armenian diaspora

The adoption by the French National Assembly and the Senate of a draft of the "Law outlawing the denial of genocides recognized by law", including the so-called Armenian genocide has recently been one of the much-discussed issues on the international scene. However, the debates were postponed after the French Constitutional Court overturned the draft law on February 28, 2012 on the grounds that it contradicts Article 33 of the French Constitution and freedom of speech and expression. The controversy surrounding the bill is likely to further dominate France`s political life.

Although French President Nicolas Sarkozy vowed to introduce a new bill, French political circles believe the adoption of such a law is technically impossible before the parliamentary elections due to take place in June. However, the Armenian "genocide" issue continues to remain on the agenda ahead of the presidential election.

During a meeting with members of the Coordination Council of Armenian Organizations of France President Sarkozy vowed that a new draft law making the denial of the Armenian "genocide" a crime would be submitted to the Parliament if he was elected for another presidential term.

Sarkozy`s rival from the Socialist Party, Francois Hollande, told the Council`s members he supported the passage of the bill and even promised to make the recognition of the Armenian "genocide" one of the key criteria for Turkey's EU membership and launch a memorial-museum for the Armenian genocide in Paris with the funding from the French government.

The French presidential candidates are competing with each other to win votes of the Armenian diaspora. This, in fact, is the main reason behind processes surrounding the Armenian "genocide", and also the factor conditioning the Armenian diaspora`s strong influence on political processes in France. Though some experts believe that France tries to prevent Turkey`s gaining membership of the European Union and undermine its growing prestige in the region, the more convincing argument is that domestic factors play a deciding role in the "law initiatives".

On the other hand, it is not right to link the processes surrounding the passage of such a law only with Sarkozy`s Union for a Popular Movement party. Apparently the Socialist party also plays key role in these processes. The official recognition of the Armenian "genocide" by France in 2001 was the result of the socialists` initiative. In 2006, this party achieved the passage by the French National Assembly of a draft law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian "genocide", but the bill was later overruled by the Senate.

Though the processes surrounding the Armenian "genocide" issue are France`s "domestic affair", the Armenian diaspora`s great influence on France`s foreign policy is a major source of concern, which is mostly felt in France`s South Caucasus policy.

France`s current relations with South Caucasus countries can be considered from two perspectives. The first is France`s relations with the region as a European Union member. The second is France`s bilateral relations with the regional countries, with France considering itself an independent power on the international scene. And in this case, France`s political and economic interests are at the forefront.

It`s obvious that Europe, which regards Georgia a "door" to the South Caucasus, provides all possible support to the country, trying to expand relations with it. As the regional leader, Azerbaijan, with both its political, economic and energy po tential, and geographical location, is the focus of Europe`s attention. And France also tries to keep up with this tendency. France` key priorities include defending its economic interests, signing advantageous contracts, and increasing investment opportunities. A visit to Azerbaijan in July, 2009 by French ambassadors to CIS countries can be explained by France`s aiming to enhance the political dialogue with official Baku, bring the political activity to the economic front, and explore ways of expanding investment opportunities and bilateral economic and trade relations.
It should be noted that expanding the relations with France, one of the major European powers, is of great importance to Azerbaijan too. Taking all this into consideration, France`s special attitude towards Armenia, its attention to Armenia in relationship with Azerbaijan and its attempts to treat the two states equally in political relations come as a surprise because Armenian has nothing to attract Europe and France, and it cannot be compared with Azerbaijan. Anyway, the reason behind special attention to Armenia is the Armenian diaspora in France and its votes. If one may say so France`s foreign policy interests depend on benefits of the Armenian diaspora.
In order to please France, in 2008 Armenia became an associative member of the International Organization of the Francophonie, which comprises former colonies of France. Given the fact that the organization`s goal is to build a platform for the countries related to French language and culture, it becomes clear that Armenia`s membership of the organization has a very special goal. Armenia tries to build an image of France`s friend, use the organization`s opportunities and get a chance to carry out propaganda in 75 countries (56 member countries and 19 observer countries) grouped in the organization.

In fact, cultural events serve to hide the true picture. Although for many years Armenians promised French companies to involve them in the construction of a nuclear power plant, and railway and infrastructure projects, which are some of very few attractive spheres of the Armenian economy, in the end preference was given to other companies. Armenians` ability to lie skillfully still works, but day by day the frames are becoming narrower. However, it`s apparent that the French leadership is ready to easily sacrifice the country`s economic and national interests to their election campaigns.

Elmar Huseynov