Data released by the Navy last week showed 46 pirate attacks in the area this year, compared with 222 in all of last year and 239 in 2010. Nine of the piracy attempts this year have been successful, according to the data, compared with 34 successful attacks in all of 2011 and 68 in 2010.
The prospect of renewed political turmoil in the region, especially in Somalia and Yemen, may again drive up attempts at the lucrative business of piracy, since lawless areas in these countries provide havens for pirates to launch their raids and to hold captured vessels and hostages. Further economic collapse may prompt more farmers and fisherman to choose piracy.
But the statistics so far this year are encouraging. As of last week, the last successful pirate attack in waters off East Africa had occurred on May 10, and the most recent attempted attack had occurred on June 27. The gap since that last raid represents the longest break in pirate activity in the area in five years.
Navy officers note the seasonal ebb and flow of piracy attacks in the region, influenced by the twice-yearly monsoons, and they warn that in October and November the waters and winds tend to be calmer and that pirate raids increase. But the statistics for 2012 are far below what could be explained by weather alone.
The decrease in attacks appears to be a result of increased security measures taken by commercial vessels and of sustained antipiracy patrols by the navies of more than a dozen nations, including the United States.
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