Azerbaijan could easily drive out Armenian forces- The New York Times

Azerbaijan could easily drive out Armenian forces- The New York Times

"Since the early 1990s, Azerbaijan has been trying to secure the return of ethnic Azeris who were forced from their homes by war. A Nagorno-Karabakh process that will receive a burst of attention this month when the two sides meet in Kazan, Russia"-The New York Times writes.

But the window for a breakthrough is narrow, and people here say their patience is gone.

It is tempting to forget about the "frozen conflicts." The enclaves of Nagorno-Karabakh, Transdniester in Moldova, and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia are among the most headache-inducing legacies of the Soviet Union.
Armenia controls the territories, so it is interested in maintaining the status quo.

Azerbaijan could easily drive out Armenian forces.

But conditions have been shifting, slowly but surely, in a dangerous direction.

Negotiations mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe faltered last year, leaving a "basic principles agreement" that was five years in the making unsigned.

Both countries are engaged in a steep military buildup; Azerbaijan, by far the richer of the two, has increased defense spending twentyfold since 2003,

With frustration building, threats of war have become so entwined with negotiations that it is difficult to say where one begins and the other ends.

"There is no guarantee that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia won’t start," Ali M. Hasanov, a senior presidential aide here, said in an interview. "It’s peaceful coexistence that we need, not a war. We need peaceful development. But nothing will replace territorial integrity and the sovereignty of Azerbaijan. If necessary we are ready to give our lives for territorial integrity."

He said Baku had been bitterly disappointed by international mediation efforts. "The United States, France and Russia do not do what they promised," he said. "America now thinks Afghanistan and Iraq are more important — and North Africa, and the missile defense shield in Europe — than such regional conflicts as Nagorno-Karabakh."

Among the forces driving Baku are refugees who have spent nearly two decades in limbo. The United Nations says there are 586,013 — 7 percent of Azerbaijan’s population, which is one of the highest per capita displacement rates in the world.

Cease-fire violations — every year, snipers kill roughly 30 people on the so-called line of contact — can take on huge proportions. In March, Armenian sniper had killed a 9-year-old Azeri boy, Fariz Badalov. Azeri television featured the boy’s pitiful life story. The single bullet that crossed the line of contact that day was the one that lodged in the boy’s head.

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