Gulmira Rzayeva, Principal Research Fellow at SAM has been invited by the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, one of the world’s leading research institutes on energy studies, to conduct a research on Gas in the Turkish Energy Market: Policy and Challenges.
The Press Service of SAM told SIA that in addition to describing the current condition and recent developments in the Turkish gas market, the paper will also provide an analytical prognosis of its future. Recognizing that the Turkish domestic gas market is in the early stages of liberalization, the report will address the question of how Turkey will develop its relations with gas suppliers such as Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, Iraq and potentially Turkmenistan. This is especially significant given the strong growth trend of Turkish gas demand vis a vis its negligeable domestic production. The likely evolutionary development path for gas in the Turkish energy mix will be examined and the question of whether this will be as a result of policy or merely by default will be addressed.
The research will examine Third Party Access (TPA) to the transport grid of BOTAŞ and the Natural Gas Market Law No. 4646 adopted in 2001 as a fundamental step to establishing a liberal natural gas market in Turkey. The lack of full implementation of this law in the 12 years since its promulgation by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) is regarded as the main impediment to Turkey becoming a liberalized gas trading hub. The paper will examine how Turkey’s domestic gas market structure will develop going forward in terms of market architecture (hubs) and key players, and the general outlook for Turkish gas demand.
The paper will also examine the extent to which the application of TPA to LNG terminals might contribute to the diversification of gas supply sources to Turkey when and if demand for LNG grows rapidly.
Given that Turkey is at the present the only gas market in the European region showing significant and sustained demand growth, the paper addresses the question of whether regional suppliers should focus on the Turkish domestic gas market itself rather than regarding Turkey as merely a transit country en route to the rest of Europe, where post-2008 demand is at best stagnant.
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