European Union: possibilities for transition to a federal system

In recent years, the ongoing crisis in Europe had aggravated number of problems and prompted various scenarios regarding the future of the European Union. Some of them contain pessimistic aspects. Multitude of ideas voiced about one of the most advanced geopolitical spaces is thought-provoking. Those who seek to salvage the European Union are not concealing their anxiety. Some are suggesting concrete models for overhauling.

Problems of the EU: search for solutions

Fate of the European Union has troubled the Western politicians for past several years. Many problems observed in the member states pose a threat to the "Old continent'' in general. Experts suggest evolution models to prevent chaos in a space considered being one of the most powerful geopolitical centers of the world. Although it is difficult to judge which one conforms to the reality, the very idea of multiple development scenarios attest to the gravity of the problem in the EU.

Nicolas Berggruen, founder of a namesake institute and Nathan Gardels, editor of "New Perspectives'' quarterly and a senior adviser with the same institution released an analytical report containing fascinating themes concerning the future of the EU. (See: Николас Берггрюен, Натан Гарделс. Европа будущего / "Россия в глобальной политикe'' (Next Europe / Russia in global politics) 31 August 2013).

Apparent crisis in Europe actually emanates from the processes in social-cultural, political and economic fields. Legal factors and faults of the institutional system of the organization add to the problem. Structures managing the EU are beginning to fall short of modern requirements (See: above article). "Vague mandate and lack of institutional clarity'' ultimately leads to dwindling legitimacy of various EU entities in the eyes of Europeans – another thought-provoking idea.

The point is if different bodies of the European Union (European Council of the Heads of State and Government, European Parliament, European Commission and etc.) are losing the trust of the citizens, the process may affect the cores, questioning the sheer tradition of the Western statehood. On the other hand, such problems arising in times of profound changes happening in global geopolitics arouse concern. It casts a shadow upon the EU in the capacity of a role model, to say the least.

Advantages of the Western statehood model were much deliberated upon for the past 200 years, just as it was recognized a model for social-economic prosperity and democracy. Today, however, it is Europe that suffers institutional crisis. Fascinating idea by Lee Kuan Yew, Prime Minister of Singapore in 1959-1990, comes to mind.

In their book about Lee Kuan Yew, American political scientists Graham Allison and Robert Blackwill emphasized one aspect: father of "Singapore miracle'' said; "if China became a liberal democracy it would collapse'' (Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill. Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World. Belfer Center Studies in International Security. The MIT Press, 2012. 224 pages). It was not your regular comment as it was voiced by a person who served as an adviser to several U.S. Presidents (including Barack Obama) and to Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping. It indicates a possibility of existence of systems alternative to the Western statehood model. Words by Lee Kuan Yew are quite appealing in light of the current crisis in the European Union.

In this regard, a theme by former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is also notable: "Structural reforms can only work in conjunction with a growth trajectory'' (See: Николас Берггрюен, Натан Гарделс. Европа будущего / "Россия в глобальной политикe'' (Next Europe / Russia in global politics) 31 August 2013).

It would help Europe to escape the debt "trap'' and ultimately boost its competitiveness. Such a change would take Europe to a new institutional level. Namely, European Commission would serve as an executive body, the European Parliament would become a lower legislative house and Council of the Heads of State and Government turn into upper legislative house. For that to come to fruition, European Union would have to adopt the Swiss federal model (See: Николас Берггрюен, Натан Гарделс. Европа будущего / "Россия в глобальной политикe'' (Next Europe / Russia in global politics, 31 August 2013).

Towards a federation: integration and extreme nationalism

Apparently, the future of the EU is viewed as a federation – a process that will require time. On the other hand, not all the member states may embrace that model. Historical experience demonstrates that federation implies sacrificing certain elements of independence. In EU, for example, France would have to limit its freedom, an idea that Paris would hardly grasp.

Another problem is related to newly adopted member states. Countries akin of Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, have seen rising nationalism, in some cases with radical undertones. Especially it is the youth that resents curtailing of their rights, fueling Islamophobia, racial discrimination and intolerance. It is not accidental that even such an advanced European country as Germany has seen prominence of radical organization grow. What is also thought-provoking is that experts do not see the prosperous wellbeing as a solution to social-cultural and moral grievances. People may behave radically just for the mere changes of the existing situation.

It highlights the prospects of strengthening radical nationalism in the European Union. Political quarters also lack unanimous opinion on the extent of integration. German philosopher Jurgen Habermas draws attention to the problem’s core. Statehood in Europe became so sophisticated that a need for transition to a new phase of social integration emerged, defined by Habermas as "supranational in tegration''. This idea, however, is yet to be realized.

Efforts to devise a federation may bring a renewed impetus to the process. Consolidation of power within limited political quarters may provide stimulus to integration. There are no historical precedents, however, as to how it would involve several independent countries. Some argue that neither the U.S. nor the Swiss model is applicable for the European Union. Empires that existed throughout the history cannot be the models to follow either. Apparently, Europe will have to introduce a novelty in this regard, something it is believed to be impotent of.

Presumably with that in mind Nicolas Bergruen and Nathan Gardels conclude their article with the following remark: "The only way to answer Europe’s current challenge in the face of the many uncertainties is for Europe’s leaders, and its public, to at last commit to this transformation instead of remaining paralyzed with hesitancy'' (See: previous article). Thus, federal system is suggested as the only remedy. This argument appears viable on the backdrop of other scenarios on the future of the EU because the possibility of dissolution of the organization or of becoming a debilitated institution is not ruled out.

Experts predict European Union to end up in a predicament in light of fierce global scale geopolitical rivalry. Moreover, the attractiveness of the organization is also dwindling. Turkey’s leadership is publicly declaring lack of hope for EU membership. Social surveys also revealed that citizens of the country opted not to prioritize European development model and prefer emerging regional integration models instead. Some experts believe the process may only aggravate. Notwithstanding, we believe European Union stands a fair chance of its clout reemerging as the organization wields enormous social, political, economic and cultural prowess.

Although currently trying to cope with the crisis, EU’s strong member state – Germany is capable of saving the day, albeit certain change in the German psychology would be needed to that end. Organization’s capacity to bring about reinvigoration is beyond doubt, and it may as well be through federation. In the meantime, historical course of events may provide another formula. Time is what Europe needs.

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