The Caspian Sea: A new war zone?

Geopolitical importance of the Caspian basin is reaching new level amid continuing contradictions in different regions throughout the world. Regional countries` showing off their military muscles in the sea, intensification of exercises cause several questions as regards the future of the region. Experts analyze these processes from different aspects, with the threat of war being in the foreground.

Status, energy carriers and military ships: any interconnection?

Geopolitical processes around the Caspian basin appear to be intensifying. The region has always been a focus of attention of superpowers, and the issue has now reached a new geopolitical level. And it`s what attracts the attention of experts. Firstly, the battle for the region`s energy resources has, in fact, entered a new level. This started after Azerbaijan expressed preference for the Trans-Adriatic energy project.

Experts believe Azerbaijan`s decision changes geopolitical dynamics of the Caspian basin. Some countries look enviously at this project, which opens ample opportunities in a large area, including Central Asia, for pumping energy resources to the West. In reality, they are concerned about the fact that they have no mechanisms of pressure against Azerbaijan, which is pursuing its independent policy.

Tension caused by the struggle for energy recourses of the region was evidenced by behavior of some countries one or two years ago. Last year, for example, Deutsche Welle said that "Turkmenistan confirmed its participation in militarization of the Caspian'' (by conducting exercises – Newtimes.az). The major reason behind this was "the Iranian crisis and contradictions among Caspian littoral states'' (see: Виталий Волков. Гонка вооружений на Каспии // "Deutsche Welle", 11 September, 2012).

Certainly, geopolitical developments with respect to Iran influence what is going on in the Caspian basin. However, it would not be right to link all factors only to this. Energy recourses of the USA, European Union, Russia and China as well as their struggle for geopolitical dominance should necessarily be taken into account. This is the factor that plays a central role in geopolitical processes taking place in the Caspian basin.

Western media reports have recently said that Russia and Iran plan to hold a combined naval exercise in the Caspian Sea. Richard Weitz, a senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Affairs at Hudson Institute, believes that "Caspian complexities block Russia-Iran naval axis'' (see: Richard Weitz. Global Insights: Caspian Complexities Block Russia-Iran Naval Axis // "World Politics Review", 2 July, 2013).

But why has the situation been so complex? The central role here is played by the fact that superpowers have failed to reach consensus with respect to the issues of regional security and the use of energy resources of the region. Against a background of this, situation has become tense in the Caspian region and superpowers started showing off military muscles in the basin.

Experts explain the growing competition in the region by the Caspian bordering states` failure to define the status of the sea (see: Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu. Hazar’da rekabet kızışıyor // www.blog.milliyet.com.tr, 4 August, 2013). There is a big element of truth here. But the major point is the reason why the status of the Caspian Sea has not yet been defined. Each littoral state has its own view of the division of the sea. Their positions have been thoroughly analyzed so far. The Caspian bordering states have failed to reach consensus since the problem emerged. Although Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan signed some document on delimitation, Turkmenistan and Iran remain opposed to it.

In general there is not a shared stance on how to divide the oil-rich sea bed among the littoral states. What deters Russia and Iran is that dividing the sea into "national sectors'' will give Azerbaijan full independence. Turkmenistan, which seeks the biggest share of energy resources, is unfriendly towards Baku`s objective proposal.

The impact of two factors on geopolitical situation

This lays grounds for drawing conclusions that there are two factors aggravating tension in the Caspian Sea basin. First of all, certain regional states are concerned about Azerbaijan`s strengthening its independent policy. This is why they raise the issue of Turkmenistan. Secondly, superpowers cannot define who will be playing the role of the regional leader. This paves the way for a dangerous trend – showing off muscles in the Caspian is becoming the major factor. It`s no coincidence that Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper called its article on the issue "A geopolitical storm in the Caspian Sea'' (see: ВладимирМухин. Геополитический шторм на Каспии // ''Независимая газета'', 9 August, 2013).

Russia and Kazakhstan launched military exercises in the Caspian Sea. President Putin, during his recent visit to Azerbaijan, was accompanied by Dagestan missile ship and Volgodonsk minor artillery ship. There are reports that Nursultan Nazarbayev is going to inspect military ships. Military expert Yuri Netkachev believes that there are three reasons why the military ships accompanied Mr Putin to Azerbaijan`s capital. Firstly, Russia must protect its geopolitical interests in the light of the West`s increasing role in the region. Secondly, Moscow pursues certain economic interests in the region. Thirdly, there is growing necessity for joint fight against terrorism.

One should admit that there is truth in the view of the Russian expert. Many political analysts say combating radical groups on an international scale has become a pressing issue recently. Fareed Zakaria, for example, believes that Al-Qaeda is divided into several small uncontrolled groups, which are becoming a big threat (see: Fareed Zakaria. Little al-Qaedas Loom Large // "Time'', 19August, 2013). Interestingly, for him, one of the possible approaches to the new threat of terrorism is to try to get local governments to fight the terrorists.

This means that America is not the only enemy of radical religious groups as many other countries` are becoming targets, which can have fatal consequences. In this context, Russia`s starting to take serious anti-terror measures near its southern borders is understandable. However, the issue has another side too.

For superpowers, geopolitical aspect and anti-terror war are closely interconnected. So it`s extremely difficult to define where the border passes between these two notions. In addition, when saying "fight against terrorism'' superpowers mean Muslim radical groups. And this casts a shadow on such a serious threat like the Armenian terror. It appears that countries like Azerbaijan are unilaterally involved in the anti-terror war in the interests of some powers.

And this has thought-provoking consequences. The point is that many want to bring young independent countries under their geopolitical umbrella under the pretext of the fight against terrorism. In this sense, efforts like conducting military exercises in a region like the Caspian basin and provoking new controversies over energy transportation routes are becoming extremely dangerous.

The aforementioned analysis proves that it is well worth considering that against the background of the strengthening competition in the Caspian basin, showing military muscles is in the foreground. The region`s geopolitical importance has undoubtedly increased. And the fact that this process is taking place amid geopolitical struggle of superpowers points to existence of certain threats. Resorting to weapons can provoke serious negative changes in the Caucasus-Central Asia region. Most importantly, the region`s development paradigm could have been replaced by war. Unfortunately, there is growing possibility that the processes will develop right in this direction. But only time will tell what will happen.

Newtimes.az