Interview with Maxim Minayev, leading expert of the Political Conjuncture Center (Russia).
Russian Defense Minister Serdyukov’s visit to Azerbaijan showed that Russia is interested in prolongation of the agreement on radar station rent in Gabala. How can you explain this interest given that Russia is building a modern radar station in Armavir for the same end?
I support there are two reasons here. On the one hand, Gabala radar station is suggested as one of the elements of the American missile defense system under the NATO auspices. And in these circumstances, Russia would certainly want to preserve control over the facility, extent its rent since this station is included into the package discussed with the United States.
Certainly, one can say that there are no subject consultations between Moscow and Washington on radar stations both on Gabala radar station and overall missile defense. Moscow’s appeal was twice dismissed in Lisbon at the Russia-NATO summit and in Sochi. But nonetheless Moscow does not give up efforts to offer its script of the idea of creating the Euroatlantic security system. Naturally, Gabala radar station is the asset that Kremlin offers in the dialogue with Washington today.
The second reason is connected with Russia’s willingness to preserve the elements of missile defense which it holds. Thus, Gabala radar station is viewed as part of this system and despite creation of a more updated radar station in Russia, one more station will not be excessive for Moscow, especially given the risk of open competition with NATO in the sphere of missile defense, including in the post-Soviet space, which is why the variant of integration of different countries with the system of Euroatlantic missile defense, including Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Georgia. Naturally, preservation of control over Gabala radar station is a very serious trump card and serious obstacle for prevention of such a script.
Does it mean that you hope for American’s agreement with the idea of the joint use of Gabala radar station?
I am not sure, considering that the refusal of the American side came twice, officially and not as some back scene talks. Certainly, there are almost no chances that Russia will join the American missile defense system as an independent participant of this project. Nonetheless, due to the political ambitions of the Russian leadership Moscow benefits from preserving image even in such an unfavorable situation and stake on continuation of talks. Officially, the Defense Ministry of Russia and Pentagon did not stop, as well as the dialogue of experts on the same issue. That is formally Washington will seemingly play for Moscow, preserve visibility of thingness of discussions of this issue. But, certainly, practically the United States will likely not accept Russia’s real participation in its missile defense system, which will be created under NATO’s auspices, largely because in its missile defense system, it is primarily oriented on the run-in of the US missile defense potential in the face of potential aggression of Russia and China.
Do you think Russia and Azerbaijan, as an owner of the radar station in Gabala must heed the obvious concern of neighbor Iran about possible though unlikely participation of Americans in the use of this station?
I think that certainly Iran’s opinion must be heeded. Iran is a regional player, quite an influential power. Russia and Iran preserve quite close political and economic contacts. Though all military and technical ties between Moscow and Tehran have been ceased, quite an active dialogue is underway in the energy sector and Russian companies are involved to implementation of even promising projects on the Iranian market. There is a facility in Bushel, which has already been launched officially this year.
That is here Moscow must certainly take into account Tehran’s opinion but here it is necessary to heed that Gabala radar station is quite a flexible asset. That is formally speaking about the possible involvement of American players, in practice, we cannot expect implementation of such a script in the middle term perspective. And as a result, there is no need for coordinating positions primarily with Iran as to its concern about the US presence in the South Caucasus. For this reason, Moscow has an opportunity to maneuver on Iran issue which it has been doing over the past two years.
.jpg)
.jpg "Rusiyanın hücum edəcəyi ölkələrin SİYAHISI")
USD
EUR
GBP
RUB
