In an interview with Caliber.az, Alexander Karavayev, a Russian expert and researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, voiced interesting views on the global food crisis. According to him, there are no serious grounds for global hunger, the current shortage is artificial and speculative.
"The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2022 from 4.1 to 2.9% in January, which is about 1% of the global slowdown. This is not much, but a 2 percent decline would be a very serious problem, especially for the European economy. After the pandemic, it passed through existing channels and trade links. Now there are structural results in a very short time. In the second quarter of 2021, the global economy significantly exceeded the pre-crisis level: China, the United States and Russia reached the level of the end of 2019. Now the pandemic algorithm is repeated: private consumption has decreased, the role of government agencies has increased, as well as the volume of budget items in terms of both expenditure and revenue. The jump in food prices occurs when there is no real cause for the crisis" the expert stated.
According to the economist, digital platforms, individual speculators and speculative scenarios within all industries have won: "Now the same" speculative "geopolitics is repeated. Ukraine and Russia supply an average of 30-35 million tons of grain to the world market. In total, the global reserves of producers currently amount to 300 million tons of grain. There is no reason for starvation, but there will be shortages for import-dependent countries: parts of Africa and Asia. Again, the problem here is more political speculation than the real situation. It is true that history has shown that speculation has caused famine in many parts of the world. But I don't think it will happen now".
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