f it joins the European Union and subsequently withdraws from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Armenia would lose a number of privileges, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu said.
"Taking a conservative estimate, exiting the Eurasian Economic Union would cost Armenia 30-40% of its GDP. This would critically damage the country's economy, while a drop in production, a shrinkage of the labor market, rising unemployment and inflation would lead to a sharp decline in living standards. Meanwhile, given the state of the European economy, Yerevan should not expect to receive any generous subsidies from the EU," the top security official said.
According to him, in exchange for the prospect of European integration, Armenian citizens will have to give up the privileges that the Eurasian Economic Union's common labor market provides, including employment without permits, facilitated registration, free medical care, free education and much more.
The Security Council secretary recalled that money transfers from Russia into Armenia amount for approximately 15% of the country’s GDP. "A substantial portion is represented by transfers from Armenian citizens working in Russia. Considering the fact that many of them would have to return to their home country, and they are not welcome in Europe, we can safely assume that cash flow into the Armenian economy from abroad would decrease, and rather considerably," he believes. According to Shoigu, new jobs would need to be created rapidly in this case, but the country lacks the necessary investment funds for this.
Trade with EU countries
Additionally, Shoigu said that Armenia would be obliged to impose customs duties on goods imported from Russia and other members of the EAEU and, consequently, to cancel duties on goods from the EU countries. "Naturally, the customs union and free trade with the EAEU countries would be out of the question. It would also have to withdraw from the CIS free trade zone," he added. Armenia's trade turnover with the EAEU countries totaled at $12.7 billion in 2024, while the turnover with the EU countries amounted to $2.3 billion. "The difference is nearly six times," the Security Council secretary specified.
On top of that, Shoigu is sure that Armenia would not be able to switch its export destinations, since Armenian goods are not wanted in Europe. "To enter Western markets, to gain a foothold in them is a herculean task, among other things due to very high phytosanitary, veterinary, and other requirements," he explained.
At the same time, Shoigu pointed out that Russia's losses resulting from Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU would not be significant.
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