Despite the fierce confrontation between the two sides, peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is undoubtedly still possible, notes an article “Azerbaijan-Armenia: is peace finally possible?”, published in the French newspaper l’Opinion.
According to SİA, the publication quotes Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who said at a military parade in Khankandi on November 8 that "We do not need a new war. We achieved what we wanted <...> The enemy has knelt before us."
The article notes that the conflict between the two small Caucasian states now fits into a global, more complex geopolitical picture: Armenia's rapprochement with the West and its distancing from the Russian sphere of influence. The game in this sense between the West and Russia is an element of the new Cold War, fueled by the war in Ukraine. The West is gaining points, but the situation is fragile. Authorities in Baku do not hide their concern or even irritation about the Western game in Armenia.
"There is a risk of Ukrainization of Armenia, which is not good for us. The security of Armenia is not in Moscow, Brussels, Paris or Washington," said assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmat Hajiyev.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizada stressed the need to solve the problems on a bilateral basis.
Traditionally associated with Russia, Armenia today feels abandoned by its former protector. Added to this geopolitical refusal is a political divergence: Prime Minister Pashinyan is a liberal democrat who came to power in 2018 against Vladimir Putin's friends as a result of the Velvet Revolution.
Added to this contradiction between domestic political orientation and geopolitical constraints is the large power gap with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is almost four times richer and more populous than Armenia. Azerbaijan which is close to Türkiye and Israel also exports gas to Europe, in particular to Italy, which makes it "a reliable partner in ensuring European energy security," said Elchin Amirbayov, special representative of the President of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's policy is sovereign and independent. Its land borders are closed, which, in particular, prevents it from being on migration routes. Azerbaijan is clearly in a strong position.
"There is no alternative to peace with Armenia, but the process is suspended, one might say frozen," says Elchin Amirbayov, who is dealing with this issue. "We are halfway through agreeing on a peace treaty, but everything comes down to the duplicity of Armenia, which, with the support of France, is waging a diplomatic war against us in the UN and the European Union," he notes.
When asked about possible mediators in the dialogue with Armenia, the Foreign Ministry spokesman quotes the EU, Washington or Moscow. Emmanuel Macron? "No! He's absolutely unconstructive." The failure of the European Political Community summit in Granada in early October demonstrated the strength of this rejection.
There are two difficult issues on the table between Armenia and Azerbaijan: the delimitation of their borders and the Zangazur corridor. "We must agree on a basis for delimitation work. Armenia is talking about a certain Soviet map of 1975. We are talking about the fact that this is not about one map, but about twenty maps published between 1974 and 1983," says Elchin Amirbayov. Speaking about the complexity of the task, he recalls that it took fifteen years to determine the exact border line with Russia, and that the work is still not completed with Georgia, with which relations are nevertheless "excellent".
The Zangazur corridor is an even more sensitive issue. One of the regions of Azerbaijan, Nakhchivan, is separated from the rest of the country by the territory of Armenia. The Armenians fear a new military offensive from their neighbor with the aim of conquering this part of the country.
Azerbaijan counters: "We have no territorial claims against Armenia. We simply want to restore the 42 km long connection between the two parts of our territory, along the border with Iran. At the first stage, the restoration of the railway connection that existed during Soviet times. You can study the model of Kaliningrad (Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania). But transit security must be ensured on Armenian territory, since even in the Soviet times, passing trains were stoned. And it is natural that we have concerns about this, because we are separated by thirty years of conflict." A conflict that may need to end: "give peace a chance."
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