The US armed forces do not have a sufficient force in the Caribbean for a full-scale ground invasion of Venezuela, Politico reported citing sources.
They said the only realistic option for the administration of US President Donald Trump may be missile and bomb attacks.
Politico said that there are "no sizable American ground force is waiting in the region," and it would require "a significant, visible logistical effort" to transfer thousands of soldiers "to a friendly country or U.S. territory nearby" to invade. Thus, the publication believes, despite the warnings of the US president about "stronger" actions, airstrikes remain "most feasible and immediate option" for Trump.
A White House source said that Trump's harsh rhetoric and threats are "a designed strategy to pressure [Venezuelan president Nicolas] Maduro to leave." Another source close to the administration said there was a "99.9% chance" that operations against Colombia and Mexico would not be implemented. The story says the US Navy concentrated in the Caribbean, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, have about 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles at their disposal. However, the experience of past campaigns shows that "at least 50,000 troops - including 20,000 soldiers - would be required for a mass attack," writes Politico.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel, said that Venezuela's armed forces comprise about 90,000 people, including ground forces, marines, and the National Guard. "The Venezuelan ground forces number some 90,000 including the army, marines and National Guard," he said. The ground operation will lead to a significant increase in costs, while the prospects for its success remain unclear. A former Trump administration official told Politico that this could quickly escalate into "guerrilla warfare in Venezuela’s jungled interior if forces loyal to Maduro decided to fight it out."
According to the newspaper, it may take months to concentrate the group in a US-allied country near Venezuela, and these efforts will be difficult to hide. Also, the American public may not support such a military operation: the latest CBS News poll showed that 70% of the country's residents do not back the idea of invading Venezuela.
"The Trump administration was hoping to scare Maduro into departing Venezuela, but if that doesn’t work, the remaining military options are unappealing," said a former defense official. "And if Maduro does indeed depart, by choice or by force, then it leaves open the question of whether U.S. forces will be needed to secure the country, and for how long."
Maduro has repeatedly warned that his country is facing the most serious threat of invasion in the last 100 years from the United States, which is eager to seize the world's largest proven oil deposits. Washington unfairly accuses Venezuela of not actively fighting drug smuggling. The US Navy has deployed a strike group of ships in the Caribbean Sea, led by the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, a nuclear submarine, and more than 16,000 troops. Since September, the US army has sunk at least 20 speedboats in the region, killing more than 80 people.
The American media has repeatedly reported that the United States may soon strike the republic. On November 27, Trump said that Washington would very soon begin to fight drug trafficking from Venezuela on land, but provided no details. On November 29, Trump said he closed the airspace over Venezuela.
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