The UK and other European countries are developing a strategy to help Ukraine in case Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and Washington withdraws its support, according to The Times.
According to the source, Europe is actively trying to increase arms production to help Ukraine and deter Russia for at least a year, regardless of U.S. support. Some members of the British government are convinced that Ukraine's victory over Russia will take time, so Europe should be ready to help Kyiv with weapons if Donald Trump wins the presidential election and Ukraine loses U.S. support.
The source noted that Vladimir Putin is betting on Trump, "but Europe is cranking through the gears" to ensure they can help Ukraine win without the U.S. if Trump were to try and pull the plug.
“Can continental Europe afford to fold just because Trump says no more U.S. dollars? I think most realize that Putin can’t be allowed to win as consequences for European security are grave,” said the Whitehall source.
One way to victory is to stretch Putin and his army so thinly that he is forced to give up, the source said, adding that no matter what the president’s threshold for pain was, he was unable to sustain the war indefinitely.
“2024 isn’t about big operational success - there’s unlikely to be a big breakthrough this year. 2024 is about stretching Putin into 2025 and beyond — effectively calling his bluff and testing his resolve,” the source said.
According to The Times, some Western officials believe that Ukraine can continue to hold its territory without U.S. support. They are convinced that in the long run, it is much easier to hold Ukraine, defending itself and protecting the gains it has made, than to go on the offensive.
British military intelligence leaders believe that Ukraine will not be able to win a war with Russia in 2024, as Kyiv has neither the manpower nor the weapons to make a major breakthrough on the battlefield.
At the same time, the newspaper notes, the Russian military also does not have the strength to launch a large-scale counteroffensive that could break through the Ukrainian defense.
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