Russian political scientist Stanislav Tarasov, editor-in-chief of the Eastern edition of the REGNUM Information Agency, touched upon interesting points related to the processes taking place in our region in an interview with the Caliber analytical center.
- Stanislav Nikolayevich, closure of Russian schools, ban of Russian language, marches against Russia are regularly held in Yerevan. What do those who advocate for this achieve?
- The recently growing anti-Russian mood in Armenia is confusing, at least because Moscow never planted the Russian language there. The experience of Ukraine has shown that we will not force the Russian language anywhere. Personally, I once worked in Kabul and I remember well that the vast majority of the population spoke Russian. The Russian language was useful for them. I noticed the same thing in Turkiye, where again the Russian language remains one of the highest priorities to this day. Knowing Russian is not so prestigious, but more profitable: for Russian-speaking Turks, it is useful when they are looking for a job or studying. That is why, it is not clear to me why the opposite situation is observed in Armenia, we even observe anti-Russian attacks.
- Do you think that some revanchist forces are behind these processes?
- Now I don't think it's right to talk about some revanchist forces. Even if we hypothesize a change of power in Armenia, even in this case no one will take revanche route there. It is impossible to change the status quo in Karabakh, the main game has already been played. Armenians were completely defeated in the 2nd Karabakh war. Therefore, now we have to think about the future of not only Armenia, but the whole region, especially in the current period of geopolitical redistribution. Ukraine experience has shown that even in an unstable region like the Middle East, a lot can change.
- What do you think, is Armenia's future with Russia or the West?
- I would ask this question to Pashinyan myself. We cannot understand it ourselves. Yes, Armenia is a member of the CSTO and the EU, but despite this, it does not break relations with the West. In this sense, I have repeatedly cited the policy of Baku as an example. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan is not a member of the CSTO and the EU, during the preparations for the Second Karabakh War, Aliyev brilliantly used the resources of Russia and Turkiye for the interests of his state. It must be acknowledged. Although I used to be skeptical of his politics, now I take my hat off to him.
Secondly, Armenia, a member of CSTO, Eurasian Economic Union, could not use these resources in accordance with its national interests, and in some cases even sold the interests of its ally. This is confusing to say the least. It's time for Armenians to decide who they want to be friends with and where they want to be.
- Perhaps this issue was also discussed during the last visit of William Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, to Armenia...
- This is also a question. The CIA director never goes anywhere. Of course, the trip had a specific purpose, but it was not advertised in the press. I believe that Burns' visit was more related to Turkiye-Armenia relations. Americans want to bring Turkish-Armenian relations to a separate spectrum. Now Turkiye and Azerbaijan act as a single bloc in relation to Armenia. The task of the United States is to separate them in different directions. That is, Armenia and Turkiye are separate games, and Armenia and Azerbaijan are separate games. This allows you to maneuver from all sides.
- Does the Sochi meeting between Putin and Erdogan increase Washington's doubts?
- Undoubtedly. I believe that the recent summit held in Tehran with the participation of 3 regional powers - Russia, Turkiye and Iran - has already given grounds for Washington's concern. It seems to me that many issues were discussed in more detail at the last summit held in Tehran, and perhaps the three countries have already reached an agreement on the Syrian crisis. So far, this has probably not been announced because of Turkiye's plans in the Middle East. Moscow and Tehran are against Turkiye's new war in Syria and believe that this issue should be resolved through diplomatic methods. And I think that if the parties reconcile Assad and Erdogan, the Syrian problem can be solved.
Secondly, it is related to the grain agreement reached at the end of the summit held in Tehran. Now it turns out that Ukraine does not have the volumes of grain (20-25 million tons). There are many misunderstandings around this issue. Egypt even broke the contract with Ukraine on the eve, because it turned out that there was no grain. I suspect there are some political games around this topic.
- Does it turn out that Russia is becoming the main grain supplier to world markets?
- Objectively, yes. Ukraine's grain reserves, announced in the amount of 20-25 million tons, make up only 5-6 percent of the world volume. Therefore, the hysteria that there will be a world shortage without Ukrainian grain is complete nonsense.
- Finally, about the future of Russia-Turkiye relations - how do you see it?
- Listen, what kind of future are we talking about?! After all, we have a great relationship and an equally wonderful future.
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