The Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group, forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.1% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026, Report informs referring to ING.
Expectations for the current year have decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to previous forecasts, and for next year, they have increased by 0.5 percentage points.
"Easing in demand-driven pro-inflationary factors has allowed the CPI to moderate to 4.9% YoY as of August, after peaking at 6.3% YoY in April–May, despite continued pressures in the food segment. Forward-looking indicators, including the producer price index, suggest some easing on the cost side due to lower oil prices, though food input costs and demand-driven pressures remain elevated.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBRA) expects CPI to remain under 5% YoY in the medium term, which is within its 4±2% target band. In July, the CBRA cut the key rate by 25bp to 7%, citing improved inflation dynamics and a more stable external environment. However, the continued fiscal easing and persistently high dollarization of banks" funding bases limit the scope for further rate cuts unless there are additional positive surprises on the inflation front," reads the update.
According to forecasts from the Ministry of Economy, average annual inflation in the country will be 5.4% this year and 4.8% next year.
According to the latest forecasts from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (July 2025), inflation will reach 5.7% this year and approximately 5.3% in 2026.
The UN, meanwhile, forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year. The World Bank expects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan to be 2.3% in 2025-2026.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.7% in 2025 and annual inflation at 5.2%. The Fund expects average annual inflation to be 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027-2029. The Asian Development Bank forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
International rating agencies S&P Global and Moody's forecast average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4% and 3% this year and next, respectively, while Fitch Ratings forecasts 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.
The average annual inflation in Azerbaijan was 2.2% last year and 5.6% in January-August 2025.
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