The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Azerbaijan's economic growth at 2% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, according to the EBRD's September Regional Economic Prospects review, published on the bank's website, SİA informs.
Azerbaijan's GDP growth estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by 1 percentage point compared to the May forecast, while the forecast for 2026 remains unchanged.
"Economic growth slowed from 4.1 percent in 2024 to 1.5 percent year on year in the first half of 2025, as output of hydrocarbons contracted by 3.1 percent while non-oil activity expanded by 3.8 percent driven by construction, trade and tourism," reads the update.
"Real GDP is forecast to grow by 2 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026, with solid non-oil activity offset by weaker hydrocarbons. Energy price volatility, global trade uncertainty and regional geopolitics pose downside risks. Upside potential stems from the cooperation on energy with the EU, expansion of the Middle Corridor and the US-backed peace framework with Armenia, which could unlock new trade routes and improve investor confidence."
In eastern Europe and the Caucasus, growth slowed from 4.7 percent in 2023 to 3.9 percent in 2024 and 2 percent in the first half of 2025 as the boost from intermediated trade and inflows of labour and capital to the economies of the Caucasus waned. Growth is expected to pick up to 3 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026.
Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth at 3% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. From January to August 2025, the country's economy grew by 1%.
Forecasts from international rating agencies vary: S&P Global expects growth of 2% per year in 2025-2026, Fitch Ratings forecasts 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, and Moody's forecasts 2.5% per year.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 3.5% and 2.5% for 2025-2026, respectively. The Asian Development Bank forecasts growth of 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively, over the next two years. The World Bank expects economic growth in Azerbaijan at 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.
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