Fitch Ratings has upgraded Azerbaijan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The Outlook is Stable.
The upgrade reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights: Robust External Balance Sheet: Sovereign foreign currency assets (80% held by the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) with the remainder in the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan's (CBRA) reserves) will approach USD74 billion (98% of projected GDP) in 2024, which is significantly above 55% in 2010 when we first upgraded the sovereign to investment grade. Azerbaijan's net sovereign asset position, projected at 71% of GDP in 2024 (50% of GDP in 2010) will remain the highest among 'BBB' and 'A' sovereigns.
Continued Current Account Surpluses: Azerbaijan's current account surpluses will decline from a projected 9.3% of GDP in 2024 to 6.4% in 2026, but will remain the highest in the 'BBB' category, despite lower oil prices (oil and gas revenues account for 89% of total exports), supporting continued, albeit more moderate asset accumulation. Fitch estimates Azerbaijan's net external creditor position will strengthen to 154% of GDP in 2024, the strongest among 'BBB' sovereigns.
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