Russia’s influence over its neighboring countries is collapsing—not slowly, but visibly and tangibly. Azerbaijan demonstrates this most clearly today. President Ilham Aliyev, usually one to avoid unnecessary confrontations, is now showing tough stance in relations with Moscow.
According to the European bureau of Report, this is how Oliver Rolofs, a security expert and co-founder and former head of communications for the Munich Cyber Security Conference (MCSC), begins his article in the German publication Focus.
We present the article to our readers:
"While building its independent policy, Azerbaijan carefully avoided Russia’s neo-imperial ambitions—until now. The tone between Baku and the Kremlin has become sharper than ever, and not without reason: in late December 2024, an Azerbaijani passenger plane was shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile in Russian airspace.
Thirty-eight people were killed. Moscow called it a regrettable accident, but no genuine apology followed. In June 2025, another incident occurred: two Azerbaijanis died under suspicious circumstances while in Russian police custody. While Baku lodged protests, the Kremlin dismissed the accusations.
When President Aliyev praised Ukraine for resisting the Russian invasion and literally advised it ‘never to surrender and never to accept occupation,’ it was more than a gesture of solidarity.
Moscow reacted immediately, but in doing so only demonstrated the weakness of a former hegemon. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke reassuringly of a ‘temporary decline’ in relations. Meanwhile, Russia’s propaganda machine went into overdrive, demanding ‘punishment’ for Baku from all directions.
The rhetoric was openly racist, referring to ‘tomato traders’ who now needed to be ‘made to sweat’ at the borders. Some even warned of ‘military measures.’ Officially, the Kremlin refrained from direct threats, but the message was clear: those who resist will be intimidated.
But that no longer works. Ilham Aliyev responded with a clear statement: he announced an international lawsuit against Russia over the Azerbaijani Airlines plane shot down in December. Azerbaijani media now use terms such as ‘imperial ambitions’ and ‘disrespect for sovereign states’ when referring to Russia.
At the same time, several Russian citizens were detained in Baku, including employees of Russian state media—allegedly linked to intelligence services. Baku showed that it will not be intimidated.
Recent episodes fit into a broader pattern of gradual but steady estrangement across the post-Soviet space. Because of its war of destruction against Ukraine, Moscow has lost that country forever—politically, economically, and mentally. Armenia, once a loyal satellite of Moscow, feels betrayed by the Kremlin after the Second Karabakh War.
Today, Azerbaijan and Armenia are negotiating a peace agreement—without Moscow’s involvement. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has since been seeking new partners—in Brussels, Paris, and Washington. Recently, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court, the body that issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Recent episodes fit into a broader pattern of gradual but steady estrangement across the post-Soviet space. Because of its war of destruction against Ukraine, Moscow has lost that country forever—politically, economically, and mentally. Armenia, once a loyal satellite of Moscow, feels betrayed by the Kremlin after the Second Karabakh War.
Today, Azerbaijan and Armenia are negotiating a peace agreement—without Moscow’s involvement. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has since been seeking new partners—in Brussels, Paris, and Washington. Recently, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court, the body that issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kazakhstan is also quietly but firmly distancing itself. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev publicly refused to recognize the so-called ‘people’s republics’ in eastern Ukraine. The Russian language is losing ground in the public sphere, while Kazakh has been declared the language of administration.
Symbolically, Astana, to Moscow’s irritation, declined to join the BRICS+ group. Together with the EU, Kazakhstan is promoting the Southern Corridor as an alternative supply route, diversifying Europe’s energy supplies and reducing dependence on Russian gas.
Meanwhile, Georgia is divided. When parliament sought to pass a ‘foreign agents law’ modeled on Russia’s this spring, tens of thousands of Georgians took to the streets.
Moldova is also consistently turning westward. President Maia Sandu is advancing the process of joining the EU, while Russia’s attempts to exert influence in the country are increasingly failing.
Even Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, traditionally close to Russia, are showing this trend. In foreign policy, they are increasingly orienting toward China, and economically toward Türkiye. They remain polite with the Kremlin, but no longer see it as a strategic center.
Russia’s reaction to all this is not honest self-reflection but the usual mix of arrogance, threats, and historical nostalgia. Yet the myth of an untouchable leading power in the post-Soviet space is losing credibility—and, consequently, effectiveness.
Azerbaijan is now the first to openly show that Moscow can be dealt with differently. The government emphasizes it is ready for honest dialogue, but not under threat and not dictated to. Those who expect equal treatment must respect the rules themselves. Those who seek respect must show it.
For the European Union, this creates a historic opportunity: the distancing of several former Soviet republics opens a window to present itself as a reliable partner—a positive alternative to Russian domination and Chinese influence.
The Kremlin remains a player in the region, but it is no longer the unquestioned reference point. The center of gravity has shifted—back to the capitals of once-dependent republics. In Baku, Astana, Yerevan, Kyiv, and Chișinău, policies are being made that no longer look to Moscow.
For Putin, this is more than a diplomatic annoyance. It is proof that the old imperial order is irreversibly disintegrating. And the louder Russia barks, the clearer it becomes: it can no longer bite hard."
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