Events unfolding in Syria happen to be the most acute matter for the system of international relations and for the global media. However, outlook towards the event and their analysis is gradually changing. Sneaking behind the scenes one may discover two principal trends.
The first trend is something branded by the West as the Arab spring or in other terms the Arab awakening. Albeit presented by certain circles as the fight for democracy of the peoples of those countries, prevalent perception is that this process is none other than the outcome of the "clash of great powers over the new markets". Those powers utilize services of such countries in the region as the Saudi Arabia and Qatar (see).
The second trend that has emerged in parallel with the first one is planned and at times unplanned process of "offensive on secularity". Because assessing the Syrian society one may discover that it is more secular and advanced in terms of culture and science that the very Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The same could be said about Tunisia. Nevertheless it is the distinctive manifestation of the advance of the religious prejudice on secularity.
Analysis of the matter in the light of those two trends reveals remarkably interesting features.
Undoubtedly, there are certain parties with the vested interest in the unfolding of the events in such fashion. Events in the Arab world have disclosed the U.S-EU-Saudi Arabia-Qatar joint team. Not only that their positions completely coincide, they even act in a concerted manner. According to observations of the Western analysts the processes are politically supported by the West while financed by the Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
With the successful transition in Tunisia and Libya the Syrian process is also nearing its completion. Some even claim that Iran is next in turn. However, to all appearances, for one reason or another, the West has no intentions of direct intervention in Syria. Even Saudi Arabia and Qatar are not willing to get directly implicated.
In this extremely intense environment Turkey appears to be in a predicament. This country is more active in terms of foreign involvement into Syria. This is precisely what some want.
There is ever growing incitement from abroad for Turkey’s engagement into a war with Syria. NATO too, claims to render necessary support to Turkey to that end.
The issue is that the outcome is unpredictable. It is yet unclear what should befall the Turkey once its troops enter Syria and the benefits of this intervention are quite obscure.
The geopolitical environment shaping up in the region, demonstrate that amongst the countries of the region number of advocates of Syria could be found. Iran, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon are on the top of the list of Muslim states sharing affinity towards Syria. The scenery gets even more perplex once Russia and China are added to the list.
Quite an unpredictable situation has emerged in the region of the Middle East, especially for Turkey. Therefore question arises: Does Turkey really need this?
Should it happen that Turkish military enter Syria, would NATO really support Turkey? Indeed, Turkey can emerge victorious from the battlefield even without NATO’s support. Turkey is capable of that, since the Turks have never faltered at the frontline. Turkish army is nurtured for sacrifice for the sake of motherland, state and the nation. Therefore let’s say they succeed, then what?
Once the Assad regime collapses, whose ascend to power is Turkish military going to endorse, if anyone’s. Will Syria be divided? Will there a Kurdish state emerge in Syria, akin of Iraq’s? What would be the impact of the Kurdish state popping up at its doorstep, when Turkey’s nightmare with the Kurdish separatism issue is still ongoing?
These questions are not at all incidental. Because most recently two authors named Frank Jacobs and Parag Khanna have published a new world map in New York Times (see). That very map illustrates that after the collapse of the Asad regime two new Alawite and Kurdish states would emerge. Could Turkish military incursion into Syria be a part of the very game?
Let’s take another approach to the issue. What about Turkey’s image in Muslim world upon the possible incursion? Would Turkey, considering it a regional power, counter the Muslim world or see its support on the matter? Is the Syrian regime change worth the sacrifice of the lives of Turkish soldiers? Finally, who and how is going to compensate the precious blood, shed by the Turkish soldiers? To my mind this is the ultimate question that Turkey should address before embarking upon the military intervention into Syria.
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