Potential flash point between Armenia and Azerbaijan
2 Aprel 2011 21:07 (UTC+04:00)
If Azerbaijan is implementing a risk and bring down the plane with Sarkisian on board, Baku will kill the head of state, and thereby commit an act of aggression against Armenia, report Dmitri Astakhov on STRATFORE website. May 9 scheduled opening of the airport in Stepanakert. The Azerbaijani side expressed its intention to shoot down planes heading to Stepanakert airport. In response, the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan said that he intends to become the first passenger of the first flight in Stepanakert.
If Azerbaijan is implementing a risk and shoot down the plane with the Armenian president given the geopolitics of the Caucasus, this will involve regional players such as Russia and Turkey, and attract the attention of the United States.
Several big players are inextricably linked to the Caucasus region, including Russia, Turkey and the United States. In the interests of those parties - to avoid a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Turkey, a traditional partner of Azerbaijan, Baku, has full support that every flight must be made in accordance with international law, listed should be respected by the airspace of Azerbaijan.
Washington has urged both sides to discuss the matter and resolve the conflict before the flight - a standard diplomatic answer.
Russia has a base in Armenia, but also has close energy and political ties with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is traditionally the most independent country in the Caucasus.
During the months before the first flight from Yerevan to Stepanakert will be extremely important to follow all the stakeholders in the political and diplomatic levels. Flight is a potential signal for Armenia and Azerbaijan to return to military action, while at the same time, all players involved will be to maneuver to try to avoid this scenario, trying to improve his political position in relation to other.