Breaking line of civilizations in Africa
Inter-civilizations struggle of the Sub-Saharan Africa can be divided into 2 categories. First includes the countries with predominantly Muslim population – Senegal (94%), Gambia (90%), Guinea (85%), Burkina Faso (60%), Sierra Leone (60%), Guinea Bissau (50%) and Cote d’Ivoire (39%). These countries have no distinctive problems on religious grounds, and it would be incorrect to describe intermittent standoffs between different tribes that share common values as a struggle of civilizations.
Second group is comprised of Christian countries with Muslim minority –Tanzania (35% Muslim), Cameroon (20%), Liberia (20%), Mozambique (20%), Central African Republic (15-20%), Uganda (12%), Kenya (10%) and etc. Religious confrontation and conflict of values is characteristic to most of these countries. Notable feature of this region is the radical nature of Islam. Terrorist acts perpetrated by "Al-Shabab" in Kenya and Uganda and acts of violence committed by the "Seleka" in the Central African Republic had played their part.
Generally, terrorism is an act stemming, not from religion, race or ethnicity but rather a political motive. There is another side to the issue - harassment of Muslims in those societies inevitably leads to certain reaction. International media regularly reports on the facts related to massacres of Muslims in Kenya, Congo and Central African Republic. In this regard, we wish to highlight Kenya that made headlines with the bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi in 1998. U.S. embassy also lost 2 employees in 2007. Several terrorist acts predated September 2013 bloody "Al-Shabab" attack on a shopping mall in the Kenyan capital. What are the motives behind these developments?
Kenya is a country of the region that most closely cooperates with the U.S. and Israel. Kenyan military partakes in every West-backed operation conducted in neighboring countries. Israeli Special Forces provide constant assistance to the Kenyan military, and they were also involved in handling of the most recent terrorist attack. Apparently, the battle is not religious but the one of the terrorist networks. On the other hand, we oftentimes come across news of discrimination against the Muslim minority on the border with Somalia.
It must be stressed that in the Sub-Saharan Africa, locations where clashes of civilizations is thought to be occurring are not the countries with Muslim majority but with a Muslim minority. In Tanzania, with a 35% Muslim population, the island of Zanzibar enjoys a special status. Majority, 90% of the population, is Muslim there. Island-continent features of the geography, historically different tradition, and different cultural values increase the risk of changes in the geopolitical outlines. Any potential conflict on the religious grounds may provoke changes with significant chance of political borders shifting in favor of the Muslim North.
One of the most fragile elements of the line of civilizations runs through Central African Republic. Here, conflicts on religious grounds have become a regular occurrence. Country also lacks stable political authorities. Although a minority (15-20%) in the country, Muslims possess significant political influence. Michel Djotodia who led the recent military coup was Muslim. With the leader of "Seleka" armed group ascending to power, the areas with Muslims few in number saw frequent troubles befalling this minority. Tension is aggravated due to Central Africa Republic’s shared borders with the uncontrolled Darfur region. Thus, line of civilizations here may also shift in favor of the Muslim North.
In the Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria is a country that deserves particular emphasis. In the most populous country of Africa, Muslims enjoy a slight edge over Christians, meaning that there is a parity of forces. Nigeria lays in the very center of the North-South line of civilizations and is home to most intense rivalry. Since the colonial times the country has seen religious confrontation. However, it became more violent with enforcing of Sharia laws in the North of the country.
Since 1999, Sharia laws have been in place in 12 Nigerian states. Christian-populated Southern states are wealthier, and location of the capital city there adds to the advantage. Radical Islamist movement of "Boko Haram" ("Western education is sinful") wields significant clout and fights against Western education, culture and influence in the country. In the meantime, there are extremist Christian groups in the South, and bloody confrontations have been ceaseless for the past several years, attesting to the ongoing struggle of two poles with totally different values. The struggle engulfs all areas from political institutions to the family values; the fight against AIDS for example. Nigeria occupies a top 3 place in the world in terms of the number of people with this disease. Muslim organizations view strengthening of family institutions as the best remedy and propagate this issue. This activity is met with resentment in the South. Thus, Nigeria emerges as a hotbed along the Africa’s North-South line. Nigeria also is a country symbolizing most extreme Islam-Christianity standoff in the world. Many extremist religious organizations on both sides are perpetrating gruesome terrorist acts. Therefore, religious strife based on the failure to share any values threatens to divide the country.
This analysis enables us to determine future outlines of the line of civilizations in Africa and to produce a summary of sensitive regions and active political players. Thus, we may highlight Darfur, Mali and Niger, Northern Chad and Somalia - Tuareg populated areas, as the most sensitive ones. These lands that lay beyond government control are sources of instability. Moreover, the region of this research is "swarming" with radical terrorist organizations akin of "Al-Shabab", "Ansar al-Dine", "Seleka" and "Boko Haram". All of these recently emerged organizations have links with "Al-Qaeda". Other than that, there are forces supported from abroad that make confrontations inevitable.
Finally, we may assume that following changes may occur, going from the West to the East, along the "line of civilizations" in Africa. No changes are likely in the Western Africa. Divisions may occur along the line of confrontation in Nigeria that is unlikely to the impact the balance of forces. Positional changes in favor of the Muslim North are expected in Chad and Central African Republic while, in Sudan, Christian South will prevail. Africa’s most Eastern nation of Somalia will remain uncontrolled for some time, with no changes expected along the North-South line of convergence of civilizations.
Arastu Habibbeyli
PhD. in Economics