Regional foreign policy course of the official Yerevan has collapsed. Armenia is today thrashing between European Union’s association membership and a place in the Customs Union. Unable to make a final decision, its agitation had only brought greater uncertainty to the geopolitical situation in the neighborhood. Experts are concerned about the emergence of new threats in the event of continuation of such a development.
Two paths to choose from: Yerevan’s decision dilemma
Foreign policy of Armenia’s leadership has once again suffered a fiasco. S.Sarkisyan’s "confident'' announcement on 3 September regarding his country’s intention to become a member to the Customs Union burst like a soap bubble. Armenia’s media are explicitly lamenting Russia’s pressure upon the country. Ridiculousness and complete external dependence of Armenia’s politics are not limited to this fact alone.
The point is that currently Armenia’s media is mocking President Sarkisyan’s visit to Moscow as a new performance of a "puppet''. They now claim that Armenia will not enter the Customs Union (See: Армения не вступит в Таможенный Союз и Россия не будет против этого (Armenia will not enter the Customs Union and with no objections from Russia) / www.1in.am, 18 September 2013). What is the reason? Is the official Yerevan endeavoring profound change to its policy?
Absolutely not, it is just Armenians are trying to put out yet another political independence show, and as usual, they are attempting to employ the Azerbaijan factor to that end. Armenian experts are speculating about upcoming sales of Russian weaponry to Azerbaijan (See: same article) alleging it as a "treason'' on Moscow’s part. That Kremlin’s move signals indifference to Armenia’s security because new arms sold to Azerbaijan endanger the lives of Armenian soldiers.
Thus, Armenian experts come to a conclusion that Sarkisyan may devise a commission seeking to establish ineffectiveness of Customs Union membership and Moscow would not object to that. According to Armenians’ logic, Russians have achieved their goal – coercing Armenia to dismiss the signing of the association agreement with the EU (Лопнувший пузырь ''таможенной'' безопасности ("Customs'' security bubble burst) / www.1in.am, 19 September 2013).
European Union had already declared the inconceivability of signing of the aforementioned agreement. Stefan Fule, the person responsible for enlargement of the organization, stated that it was impossible to be both member to the Customs Union and signatory to the association agreement (See: Тысячи кругов страха Еревана (Thousands of circles of Yerevan’s fear) / www.1in.am, 16 September 2013). Even Armenian journalists, half in earnest, half in jest, articulated that owing to Armenia’s inconsistent position Fule regretted that he held that position. Indeed, having generously fed this EU official with promises for past several years, Armenians eventually stabbed him from behind. Moreover, as a state Armenia has entangled the geopolitical situation even further.
For the official Yerevan it all comes down to this – choice between the EU and Russia. Taking into account that Armenia is deprived of an independent choice, it is futile to hope for any changes under present circumstances. A perilous environment for the region is obvious. In this regard, frivolous statements of some Armenian experts with respect to "signing of some kind of document with the EU'' sound ridiculous (See: ''Европейский союз подпишет с Арменией какой-либо документ до конца года'' (European Union is to sign some sort of document with Armenia by the end of the year) / www.1in.am, 18 September, 2013).
It appears that Armenia’s diplomacy is driven by "soap bubble logic'', meaning that its every move defies logic or common sense. Its "longevity" equals to the one of a soap bubble – to be obliterated by a light breeze. State policy of Armenia finds itself in an impasse: neither can Armenia sign the EU association agreement nor can it take a decisive step towards the Customs Union membership.
Armenian style "good neighbor'' policy
Europe denies Armenia while Armenian society has serious objections regarding the Customs Union. Experts reiterate that bewildered by the two choices, Armenia faces a formidable problem that has to do with the new situation in the region in the wake of Georgia’s expected signing of the association agreement with the EU. If Armenia joins the Customs Union, Russia’s on-land communication with the latter will pass through Georgia. Here, Armenian experts ignore Iran factor as the West nurtures specific plans with respect to that country.
Georgia’s rapprochement with the EU will lead to the introduction of European standards customs regulations in this country, thus diminishing the effectiveness of Russia-Armenia cooperation within the Customs Union. Armenian experts also quote President of Belarus A. Lukashenko who said that the Customs Union has proven to offer no solutions to his country’s grievances. Apparently Armenia has gotten itself cornered.
On the other hand, Armenia lacks the courage for resentment against Moscow. Kremlin will not tolerate Sarkisyan’s independent decisions. Thus, Armenia is caught between a rock and a hard place – neither can it expand its engagement with the EU nor does it stand a chance of benefiting from the Customs Union. What a classic example of Armenia’s "independent, visionary, and serving the Armenian statehood'' kind of policy!
In light of the aforementioned Armenia’s relations with other neighbors have predictably entered a more uncertain phase. First, there are zero prospects for any positive changes in relations with Turkey. Geopolitical processes developing in the Middle East had inspirited some hot shots in Yerevan to forward territorial claims against Turkey.
In the meantime, Armenia’s media initiated extensive speculations about new lands to be acquired. It only revealed Armenia’s aspirations to forward renewed territorial claims at the earliest convenience and demonstrated how deceiving its ambitions to become a genuinely democratic state are. Therefore, It appears implausible that Turkey would seek the establishment of ties with such a country.
Second, a fear of upsetting the West will always preclude Armenia’s genuine cooperation with Iran. In his recent interview on relations with the latter, President Obama signaled a possibility of bombardment of Iran – an indication that official Yerevan will have uncertain position concerning Iran.
Third, Georgia’s leadership had once again reiterated its commitment to the course of integration with Europe. Hesitancy on Armenia’s part impedes Tbilisi’s efforts to execute the plan. It is by introducing the Customs Union membership issue into the agenda that Armenia aggravates the situation for Georgia. This aspect will surely be taken seriously by Tbilisi in the bilateral ties with Armenia. Under the circumstances, forging productive cooperation framework between the two countries is out of the question.
Finally, it is inconceivable for Azerbaijan to initiate any contacts with Armenia. It is not happening until Armenian armed forces withdraw from Nagorno Karabakh and occupied seven districts. Moreover, Armenia’s renewed efforts aimed at involvement of the so-called "NKR'' in the geopolitical games only exacerbate standing contradictions. The ongoing speculations in the Armenia’s media about possible inauguration of the Khankendi airport also fuel concern.
Overview of the overall situation leads to one conclusion – Armenia lacks normal relations with all of its neighbors, with problems all around. Moreover, considering the country shares no land boundary with Russia, a perplex picture emerges before Armenia. In fact, foreign policy debacle is obvious in every direction and the process is set to deepen.
Newtimes.az