Western media are releasing analytical articles on Russia starting to engage the Orient. Accordingly, this process leaves Russia between Europe and the East whereas in reality, U.S. and the EU have significantly stepped up their presence there. Seemingly, a new phase of geopolitical competition in that region has begun. Outcome of this conflicting, intense and dynamic environment is a pressing issue.
Significant aspect of Russia’s foreign policy
Far East is gradually taking center stage in global geopolitics. There is a common belief that the U.S. and Russia have intensified their policies with respect to that region. Articles are being released that articulate fiercer competition between Moscow and Washington in that direction (See: Fiona Hill, Bobo Lo. Putin’s Pivot. Why Russia is Looking East // "Foreign Affairs'', 31 July, 2013). The article reiterated President Putin’s reinvigorated political, diplomatic and military-economic engagement with the Far East. Moscow produces various plans to boost its influence in Siberia and makes attempts to implement them. Russia’ efforts to take its relations with China to a new level are given an emphasis.
Kremlin attaches particular significance to geopolitical cooperation with its largest neighbor to the East. To those who thought that Russia was worried about China Putin said: "We are not frightened. China does not worry us. China and Russia will cooperate on many issues'' (See: previous article). In this context, mutual ties within Shanghai Cooperation Organization are of strategic importance. Russia and China are undertaking serious endeavors to deepen and expand cooperation in finance, trade and energy.
Nevertheless, there are certain differences between the two that largely has to do with regional leadership aspirations. Moscow and Beijing hardly ignore this aspect. Backed by its economic prowess, China aims to dominate the financial sector. It is trying to establish a common bank driven by the ultimate desire to have Yuan as a common currency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. So far, Russia has opposed the initiative.
We believe that Central Asia is a stumbling block in Russia-China relations. According to Russian analysts, in several years, China may solidify its positions within the region in economic and cultural fields, with Chinese language turning into everyday language of communication (See: Сценарный прогноз развития ситуации в Центральной Азии после вывода коалиционных войск из Афганистана 2014-2024 гг. (Situation development scenario in the Central Asia upon the pullout of coalition troops from Afghanistan 2014-2024) ''Российский совет по международным делам'', 24 May, 2013).
Japan has a different issue with Russia. Tokyo’s claims on Kuril Islands hinder comprehensive cooperation between the two countries. Moreover, joint naval exercises between Russia and China appear as a warning to Japan (See: previous article). The point is that China and Japan have their own disagreements that mainly stem from a dispute over two islands. Both countries were recently even on the brink of armed confrontation. China’s muscle flexing in the sea was received with enormous sensitivity in Tokyo. Therefore, Japan is cautious about Russia-China security cooperation.
This by no means should imply that large powers in the Far East are inclined to embrace Russia’s regional leadership role. On the contrary, it is thought-provoking that even China is reluctant to accept Russia’s leadership in the region. Official Moscow’s implementation of large energy projects in the Far East is not helping the case either. Introduction of new energy routes by Russia bound for the countries of the region failed to affect the overall perception of the country.
"Eastern race'' of the great powers
Another aspect is related with the West’s cautiousness regarding Russia turning eastwards. In that sense, Washington is not concealing its unwillingness to see Moscow achieve considerable influence in Asia. U.S. Defense Secretary was explicit about it during the speech delivered at the "Shangri-La Dialogue'' event recently held in Singapore (See: Richard Weitz. As Tensions with West rise, Moscow Looks to Asia// "The Diplomat'', 25 July, 2013). Differences remain between Russia and America on the North Korea issue. Moscow is convinced that Washington pursues some hidden agenda here. Russians believe that America is enforcing military blockade around Russia that extends from Europe to the Far East. Therefore, Russia is taking precaution measures.
This particular aspect of Moscow’s reinvigorated engagement with the region, dubbed figuratively by the experts as "Putin’s return'', evokes keen interest. Conclusion is that regardless of the efforts neither the West nor the Far East is willing to accept Kremlin as a leader in the Pacific (See: the first article). This is the thought-provoking side of the issue. In a certain sense, Russia is deemed incompatible with Western geopolitical landscape and yet unable to integrate with the Orient.
Presumably, the best case scenario would be for Russia to become one of the regional leaders. Moscow has identified boosting influence in the Asia-Pacific as one of the priorities of its foreign policy. It denotes that Kremlin will further pursue systematic and consistent policy to that end. It is not accidental that experts underscore Russia’s "defiance and consistency''.
Does it signify looming "great confrontation'' in the Far East? Moreover, can the process of militarization of the region intensify, taking into account such persisting problems as Afghanistan and North Korea? Response of the West and that of the regional countries to Moscow’s increasing engagement with the region implies that tensions among the great powers may actually increase in the Far East. However, parties to be involved are yet difficult to be determined. It is under the pretext of potential conflicts erupting between the regional countries that the West and Russia may deploy additional troops there.
In any case, increased militarization of the region may pave the way to dangerous scenarios. Moscow’s maneuvers between Europe and the Far East enable conducting of balanced policy. Wielding clout in Eurasia along with playing a significant role in geopolitics is a viable model. Therefore, one-sided approach of the Western analysts to Kremlin’s policy towards the Far East seems wrong. This issue has to be evaluated in the sense of dynamics of the struggle for world leadership in a greater geopolitical space.
It is beyond doubt that Kremlin will adhere to consistent implementation of its Far East policy. The U.S. also happens to be the vital stakeholder in the region. Viewed as rival to both nations, China is recognized as a significant factor. Powerful Japan must not be omitted from the equation. Thus, the Far East may well become a key arena of conflict between great geopolitical powers. Along those lines, it must be stressed that it is not just Russia, but the U.S. and Europe that have also turned to the East. The battle is ruthless and unforgiving.
Geopolitical confrontation reaching new heights in the Far East is a serious issue as it may significantly alter the global geopolitical picture. We are likely to observe that in the near future. However, an extremely dangerous aspect has to be stressed here. It is about the countries with substantial military prowess deploy unprecedented volumes of arms to the region.
Bearing in mind conditions of the geopolitical struggle in the present historical phase, the process is unlikely to abate. It means that regional wars may erupt in the Far East should the process continue to develop at this rate. It must be mentioned that analysts differ in their projections. They tend to forward an assumption that it is the U.S. that imposes such a game. Washington’s main objective here is to nurture individual geopolitical forces in the region and to benefit from local confrontation, including minimizing China’s chances of claiming the pinnacle of global leadership.
In any case, Russia’s active engagement with the Far East direction, deployment of additional troops there and dynamic response of regional powers to those developments attest to the onset of serious geopolitical changes.
Newtimes.az