A reformist-backed candidate has won presidential election in neighboring Iran. However, what reforms he is going to introduce is still a question. Experts suggest Iran`s foreign policy is strongly influenced by three factors, but none of them can step beyond certain boundaries. This creates serious contradictions. The new president`s activities need to be considered in this context.
Strategic objectives and contradictions
Much of the world`s attention was focused on Iran`s presidential election. The majority of experts believe there will be no radical changes in the country`s foreign policy. However, a representative of which political wing will win the election is very important. And there are concrete reasons behind this. Superpowers are concerned about which political and ideological front will see its representative come to power in Iran.
It’s already known that Hassan Rouhani, a candidate of reformists, won presidential race. Born on 12 November, 1948 in Sorkheh near Semnan, Rouhani received his primary education at religious schools. He was admitted to the University of Tehran in 1969, where he obtained a bachelor's degree in judicial law. Rouhani continued his studies in the United Kingdom. A close associate of Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Iranian Revolution, Rouhani undergone political persecutions before the revolution. Following the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Hassan Rouhani held several high positions in the government, including member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly from 1980 to 2000. From 1980-1983, he was head of the Iran State TV and Radio Company (Sada and Sima TV). Rouhani was secretary of the Supreme National Security Council for many years, and has received many high awards. He authored National Security and Nuclear Diplomacy book. Known for his moderate views, Rouhani is against all forms of radicalism and extremism. He pledged openness for dialogue with Western powers in the belief that this will help him save Iran from isolation and sanctions. He considers Iran`s relations with the U.S. very complicated, however, believing "rational and moderate policy" can yield necessary results.
On the Iranian nuclear issue, Rouhani stresses the need to reach national consensus. He also emphasizes the necessity of ensuring rapprochement and understanding on an international level. He is also ready to play the role of mediator in solving the Syrian stand-off, with an emphasis put on dialogue between the government and opposition. In this context he considers Washington`s position unsound. The new president also believes that giving some of powers of central bodies to local bodies can help solve social problems in Iran as he is against concentration of all power in the hands of authorities.
Rouhani was supported by Mohammad Khatami and Rafsanjani. He was the only candidate of reformists. Iranians are satisfied with the results of the election, which, unlike previous ones, was not marred by falsifications. More than 72 per cent of the eligible voters in Iran turned out to vote in key presidential election, with Rouhani securing 51 per cent of the vote.
This creates an impression that the presidential election in Iran was a success, and that its results satisfied the West. However, religious leader Khamenei`s saying "some in America say they will not recognize the results of the elections, but we don`t care one iota about them" on the Election Day shows that things are complicated. On the other hand, a broader look at current political situation in Iran reveals some controversial points.
It`s unlikely that Rouhani`s coming to power will mark any changes in Iran`s foreign policy. In fact, Tehran is now floundering in contradictions of its geopolitical position. On the one hand, Iran is dissatisfied with global geopolitical situation. But on the other hand, it`s trying to cement its influence in the region and in the world under the current circumstances. Moreover, political circles in Iran emphasize the country`s regional importance, but, at the same time, they say Tehran is left alone from a strategic point of view. Under normal circumstances, a country of big geopolitical importance should not be alone strategically. If it`s so, then there is a considerably contradiction. (see: FaridehFarhi and SaidehLotfian. Iranian Foreign PolicyAftertheElectionRealists and IslamicIdealistsFaceOff // "Foreign Affairs", 13 June, 2013). Prospects of Iran`s foreign policy need to be considered in the light of interaction of these factors.
The common denominator of three points of view
It seems that any political force, which comes to power in Iran, cannot step beyond the boundaries that emerged under the aforementioned circumstances. Nationalism is the core principle of Iran`s foreign policy. More specifically, despite global demands, ensuring national sovereignty is Iran`s primary goal. And this must show through two ways – increasing its role in the Middle East and preserving Islamic identity.
Given this the new president should also be very attentive because he must prove himself to be a politician who defends Iran`s national interests. Otherwise, everything he does will be considered a gesture of concession to the west. And this may deepen political contradictions within the country. Political opponents of reformists will undoubtedly try to take advantage of the situation. In this context, it should be noted that there are three political fronts in Tehran`s foreign policy.
They include idealists, regional balance supporters and global balance supporters (see: the above article). For idealists putting an end to sectarianism in Islam is an utmost strategic goal. They believe in the possibility of ideal Islamic unity, which, they say, can be achieved through Tehran`s strengthening its activities in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Idealists refused the concept of exporting the Islamic revolution, but insist that countries in the Islamic world be governed based on Sharia laws.
It should be added that politicians who follow idealism are now in the minority in Iran`s political system. There is a synthesis of regional balance and the concept of an Islamic state as a rule. For example, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and former president Mohammad Khatami belong to this category. Regional balance supporters are themselves divided into aggressive and moderate. Their primary goal is to ensure Iran`s regional leadership. This requires creating geopolitical balance, which can be achieved only if Iran has powerful economy and scientific and technological infrastructure. In this context, four factors are imperative for idealists: ensuring the country`s territorial integrity, ending international isolation, developing foreign trade, and increasing investment and demilitarizing the region.
Finally, for global balance supporters, the utmost goal is fixing relations with the USA. They aren`t interested in regional power of balance. Their strategic interests include focusing on the fact that Washington, being a geopolitical force, plays a dominant role on a global scale. But only a few take this line. They are also divided into aggressive and moderate groups. For example, presidential candidate Saeed Jalili considers resistance to the USA correct, and even hails sanctions against Iran as a positive factor because "they pave the way for Iran to mobilize its national potential".
These three different points of view will certainly affect Tehran`s foreign policy. Although varying considerably, these points of view serve a common goal. Defining which approach is the optimum one is now the ultimate task. And it is the point where Iran`s political system lacks a united approach. That`s why any minor contradiction between the groups can result in tension. How much the new president will consider this factor is a question.
In the light of these facts Iran will not see serious changes in its foreign policy. But Hassan Rouhani can take liberal measures concerning its domestic policy, which can consolidate the people. He can, for example, take some positive steps with respect to the Azerbaijani language and literature, as he promised the people of Tabriz, which can help him secure support of Azerbaijanis. Likewise, democratic decisions concerning other peoples living in Iran can produce positive results. By strengthening internal unity Iran can increase its role in the region. But only time will tell what will happen.
Newtimes.az