Lately, analysts express cautious opinions with regard to the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus, SIA reports citing Newtimes.az. There are also unclear aspects to the policy of the large powers conducted in this region which evokes interest in the context of the foreign policy of those states. Meantime, experts speak of Armenia as a country whose policies pose a threat for the region in the current phase.
Can new military bases protect Armenia?
South Caucasus has entered a complex geopolitical phase. Changes are evident in the policy conducted by the global powers in the region as they take defiant and harsh position. Diplomatic engagement has also increased. Obviously, large powers demand regional states to calibrate their geopolitical positions. One cannot fail to notice Armenia being overwhelmed with hesitations - a sentiment that also prevails in the local media of the country.
Indeed, official Yerevan finds itself in a predicament. Based on the new geopolitical conditions, Moscow, Armenia’s traditional patron makes some adjustments to its South Caucasus policy. Russia displays increased interest towards relations with Azerbaijan. It also expands its activity within the Eurasian integration model and the Customs Union. In this connection, Kremlin keeps a close eye on growing involvement of the West in the region which leads to the emergence of uncomfortable regional conditions for Armenia.
In this context, noteworthy are the renewed efforts by Russia to strengthen its military capability in the South Caucasus, including the live efforts within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). If Kazakhstan is the country that Russia puts a stake in the Central Asia, Armenia is deemed its outpost in the South Caucasus. Nowadays, Armenian experts acknowledge that explicitly (see: Наира Айрумян. ''Армения становится российской казармой'' (Armenia becomes a Russian barracks) // ''Lragir'', 3 June, 2013). It was upon the statement by the National Security Secretary Artur Bagdasaryan that Armenians became more apprehensive than ever.
Bagdasaryan spoke of the Russia’s intentions to boost its military presence in Armenia in his interview with the ''Yerkir Media'' television channel. According to him, new joint troops of the CSTO, including rapid deployment forces and aviation will be stationed in Armenia. CSTO will have Balaovit and Stepanyan military airfields in its disposal. Additionally, Russia will keep the existing military bases in Armenia.
Official Yerevan is convinced that those measures will secure the country’s borders with Turkey and Iran. Technical control over the border with Georgia will also be augmented. He went on to say that those plans are ought to be agreed upon by Europe. Armenia’s media are convinced that rejoiced announcement by the Bagdasaryan indicates Armenia’s total succumbing to Russia’s military dominance. Figuratively speaking, Armenia is being transformed into Russian army barracks in the South Caucasus.
How should official Yerevan’s actions be assessed in the environment of growing complexities in the geopolitical processes and increased tensions in and around the region? It must be immediately stressed that Armenia was compelled to make the geopolitical choice because until now the country has failed to demonstrate a clear position and attempted to capitalize on anything that its foreign patrons had to offer. This dirty game is coming to a close. Both the West and Russia are raising the issue of the ultimate choice before the Armenian authorities. It appears that Russia is dictating its will. Hindsight would reveal that Armenians are impotent in the face of Moscow’s pressure.
Instead, one hidden aspect becomes apparent. It has to do with a certain arrangement with the Russians to ensure continued occupation of the Azerbaijani territories. Although it appears as wishful thinking, the Armenian experts claim that one of the CSTO military units will be stationed in the Nagorno Karabakh. However, Russia recognizes Nagorno Karabakh as an Azerbaijani territory, and, therefore, any troop deployment would have to be agreed upon by Azerbaijan. Moreover, the CSTO is not limited to Russia and opinions of other member states matter.
Undoubtedly, Armenian experts are aware of that. They simply lack the courage to admit the dire consequences of incompetent and baseless foreign policy conducted by the official Yerevan. On the other hand, they fail to believe that Armenia will make the right geopolitical choice as their chances are growing thin. As a matter of fact, the country is in a geopolitical impasse; Armenia is capable of neither shedding Russia’s shackles nor establishing equal-footed relations with the West. No global power recognizes Armenia as truly independent.
Armenian threat with respect to the South Caucasus
In light of the aforementioned, Russia’s intentions to boost the number of its boots on the ground in Armenia appears as a grave threat for the region. First, Armenia emerges as the greatest hurdle for the establishment of the air of democracy in the South Caucasus. In reality, Armenia is interested in continued tensions and uncertainty because this is the only option to allow political speculations around Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
Second, Armenians are doing their utmost to prevent the establishment of political and military stability in the region. They sense that in the event of stability prospects of just and fair resolution of the conflict may increase because Azerbaijan is developing all around and its international prominence is on the rise. It is sooner than later that the international community will accept Azerbaijan’s rightful position.
Third, Armenia obstructs regional cooperation and attempt to capitalize on frictions between the large powers to that end. It is no secret that the U.S., Russia, China, Iran and Turkey have different positions on the South Caucasus. They have their own interests and no intentions of backing down. Therefore, at certain points they prefer ''waters to remain murky'', enabling the aggressor Armenia to maneuver and for the situation to remain intense.
Another aspect deserves an emphasis here. In light of the aforementioned, Armenian President made things appear more paradoxical by declining the attendance at CSTO summit in Bishkek on 28 May and Eurasian Economic Union’s meeting in Astana held a day later. Some Armenian experts suggested that Sarkisyan was offended by Moscow’s actions. According to Stepan Grigoryan - the Director of the Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation, Sarkisyan has deliberately skipped those meetings (see: ''Почему президент Армении не принял участие во встрече глав стран ОДКБ?'' (Why did President of Armenia fail to attend the Summit of the CSTO heads of state?) // ''Regnum'', 30 May, 2013). Political scientist Ervand Bozoyan on the contrary, urges not to speculate on any hidden agenda here because issues discussed in Bishkek and Astana were irrelevant for Armenia.
Such range of opinions does not imply alienated attitude of Russia with respect to Armenia. The reality is that Russia’s military bases in the South Caucasus are located in Armenia. Therefore, Sarkisyan’s nonattendance at those meetings may be dismissed as a formality. Official Yerevan will not stop short of turning the country into a military depot.
It manifests Armenia as a major threat source for the region. It views foreign troop accommodation as a guarantee of its security. In reality, this process is nothing but morphing the South Caucasus into a power barrel ready to explode. In the event of actions undertaken by the West on Iran, Armenia will almost automatically be implicated as Russia will immediately enforce defense measures. In fact, Armenia is already becoming a stimulator of the potential war in the region. Under the circumstances, new challenges arise before Azerbaijan and Georgia. Unresolved conflicts create serious geopolitical problems for the whole region. Large powers face a task of neutralizing the Armenian threat, but apparently they are yet to acknowledge that. Therefore, it is likely that ambiguous geopolitical game will continue to be played around the region.