Submitted for the competition held by "Newtimes.az" web portal on the occasion of the 95th anniversary of the declaration of the first secular and democratic republic of the Orient, SIA reports citing New Times.
It has already been twenty years that owing to obstructive position of Armenia, unresolved Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh conflict remains to be the greatest impediment to the stability, security and economic prosperity in the region of the South Caucasus. However, current status-quo is more detrimental to Armenia itself. Thus, Armenia’s twenty years long obstructive position with regard to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is linked with the biggest strategic threat for the aggressor state – isolation and diminishing regional substance.
In fact, policy of aggression has alienated Armenia from the regional energy projects and has hampered its economic growth. Along with economic collapse, migration, provoked by the social crisis, has also gained momentum. Armenia’s population currently stands at 3.1 million people and estimated 300 thousand people have already abandoned the country. Those who fled the country in last three years account for 5% (160.000) of the overall population.
More serious aspect is the confrontation within the ruling quarters. It is by claiming commitment to the Nagorno Karabakh that radical Armenian nationalists impede the spread of democracy and maintain Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Nevertheless, today a main reality and a crucial concern of the aggressor state is not the Nagorno Karabakh issue but social and economic crisis in the country. Thus, current situation enables an assumption that continuance of the policy of aggression does not serve the national interests of Armenia and alleviation of recession in the country is extremely important for the incumbent authorities.
Opportunities that arose in the course of the peaceful negotiations conducted since 1994, with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, were repeatedly obliterated by the aggressor. Regrettably, mediator countries turn the blind eye on Armenia’s irresponsibility and display indifference. Despite that Azerbaijan offered to elaborate comprehensive peace agreement, Yerevan continuously cited several disputed points of the agreement (?) and evaded constructive talks. As a matter of fact, Armenia’s present position undermines domestic resources of the Armenian society. Ultimately, Armenia remains to be a dependent country. Weak government is capable of neither conducting economic-political reforms nor building a modern state. Thus, aggressor country is compelled to act upon foreign instructions.
According to latest elections results in Armenia, economic situation in the country will only exacerbate in the next 5 years. While growing number of small and medium sized businesses, ran by immigrant Armenians, are being shut down, hopelessness becomes a dominant for the 1/3 of country’s population living below the poverty line. With critically low GDP per capita, imports exceed the exports by nearly 4 times. Last year Armenia’s external debt accounted for 72% of the country’s GDP. According to Armenia’s Oversight Chamber, "further persistence of the situation will entail debt crisis". No regional scale projects were implemented in last several years. Armenia-Iran railroad program, North-South automobile road, the projects of pan-Armenian bank and Gyumri techno-park were only talked about. In the meantime, lack of capital market growth, being a natural mechanism of economic development, monopolization and technological decadence are among Armenia’s key concerns. While Armenia’s capacity for scheduled debt repayments is doubtful, it is obvious that situation will imminently become unbearable. The aggressor country will ultimately be a stagnated and deprived of competitiveness economy for years, possibly decades to come.
The most interesting and noteworthy aspect is the plight of Armenians of the Nagorno Karabakh. Year by year hatred of the Nagorno Karabakh Armenians against the central government is growing. It is sufficed to recall one of the instances when a 26 years old resident of Khankendi attacked a billboard depicting one of the state attributes – Armenia’s national flag, and tore it down. Frequency of similar incidents attests that Armenians of the Nagorno Karabakh are fed up with living in social crisis on foreign lands. Unrecognized by the international community, unable to shed the image of separatists and semi-existing thanks to diaspora donations, Armenians of the Nagorno Karabakh also favor changing of the status-quo.
Changing the demographics in the occupied territories, especially the resettlement of Syrian refugees in those lands signals Armenia’s determination to protract the status-quo and only underscores that puppet regime in Khankendi is administered from Yerevan. Even the Syrian Armenians who were to leverage the demographic situation refuse to reconcile with critical situation in the occupied territories and seek to resettle elsewhere in the world. They are acutely aware of Yerevan’s intentions to establish an artificial ghetto and of how senseless the idea of resettlement on foreign lands, soon to be returned under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction, is. Thus, resettlement of Syrian Armenians failed to provide the boost to Armenia’s demographics.
For the moment, Armenia’s authorities are more concerned with the interests of their own rather than the wellbeing of its people. In this regard, it is sufficed to recall the election show held on 18 February, 2013. Those very elections once again revealed the true face of the President Serj Sarkisyan. Ordinary Armenians realized that by resorting to cheapest tricks Sarkisyan deceived the nation and that Armenians were doomed to another 5 years of political, economic and social failures of the "worst president".
Indeed, citizens of Armenia and those leaving in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan must understand that ruling regime in Yerevan is robbing the next generation of its future. It may confidently be asserted that their country is a fiasco. Whereas despite being a victim of aggression, Azerbaijan managed to become a leading country of the region, by conducting national interests driven, balanced domestic and foreign policy and increasing its economic power. Becoming a key player of both regional and international projects, Azerbaijan succeeded in shifting the regional situation in its favor and occupied a well-deserved position on the global map.
Ultimately, international community recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and is committed to the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict based on the principle of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan reserves all the rights to restore sovereignty over its territories. Our resources, advanced state policy, ratified international legal acts, national legislature, current diplomatic environment and real military-economic power enables us to hold Armenia internationally and legally accountable for the policy of aggression.
As far as military option of the resolution is concerned, in the event of the start of the war, Azerbaijan would have overwhelming military advantage. This advantage is not limited to military equipment and only amplified by artillery and missile systems. With 20% of its territories under occupation, Azerbaijan boosts its military capabilities annually. Today, Azerbaijan’s army is the most powerful in the South Caucasus. Even Armenians admit that "Armenian military units are impotent in the face of Azerbaijan’s super modern weapons and as long as the bloody clan (Sarkisyan’s regime) is in power, Armenia is step-by-step closer to a defeat in a self-provoked war".
Apparently, it is only in the environment of peace, stability and security that social-economic crisis and its consequences can be alleviated. Unresolved conflict and deliberate protraction of the resolution on Armenia’s part impedes regional development and paralyses the aggressor country itself. Therefore, Armenia has no choice but to agree to the resolution of the conflict based on the principle of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and in line with the norms of the international law.
It is only by displaying constructive position and creating an environment conducive to the resolution of the conflict that Armenia may join regional projects. By becoming a party to the economic projects Yerevan may salvage its economy from stagnation. On the other hand, by abandoning the policy of aggression Armenia may achieve the opening of borders with Turkey, leading to the lift of the blockade that remains to be one of the key factors of the economic crisis in the country.
In the meantime, Azerbaijan suggest that determination of the legal status of the Nagorno Karabakh, peaceful coexistence of Azerbaijani and Armenian communities and elaboration of regional economic, social and cultural mechanisms can be implemented upon the withdrawal of troops from the occupied territories.