Serzh Sargsyan: in a whirlpool of political processes

In his article posted on 7or.am website, Karen Akopjanyan says that Serzh Sargsyan is using Robert Kocharyan to frighten someone. "He has already exhausted himself as a human and as a leader" (1). It`s no coincidence that the Armenian President has lost people`s respect in the country. Political analysts link this to the ineffectiveness of his propaganda machine.

In a social aspect, there are deeper reasons behind this fact. Armenia, as a society, is in decay. People are leaving the country, with the economic crisis deepening. And Sargsyan`s insatiable struggle for power naturally irritates the Armenian citizens.

As far as Armenia`s position on the international scene is concerned, it is much more pitiful. Sargsyan is floundering in a geopolitical whirlpool in the true sense of the word. He is a marionette moved by strings pulled, most frequently, by the USA and Russia.

Sargsyan`s recent interview with The Wall Street Journal has once again demonstrated who the Armenian leader really is. In that interview, he proved to have exhausted himself concerning both internal issues and propaganda of geopolitical interests. He again said that he was preparing to destroy the Azerbaijani population of the Nagorno-Karabakh and that he had "powerful Armenian armed forces" to achieve this. However, everybody knows that Serzh Sargsyan himself is one of the key figures behind the expulsion of the Nagorno-Karabakh population. Then why is he so ridiculous?

The reason is clear: Serzh Sargsyan is trying to compensate his lost influence in Armenia by making absurd claims relating to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. But some moves of the countries he relies upon spoil his plans. Therefore, he tries to bring his protest to his patrons` notice in every possible way. And amid global geopolitical processes the Armenian President`s attempts seem unfounded and absurd.

However, some journalists in Azerbaijan have been deluded by the Armenian side`s cheap tricks, and are making wrong conclusions. Some of them even wrongly interpret the meaning of official Baku`s moves with respect to the conflict.

Naturally, Azerbaijan`s geopolitical position and potential allow the country to firmly pursue its interests and even exert pressure on its opponent in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The reality is that Serzh Sargsyan is incapable of exerting pressure on any foreign country. He is a pawn in a geopolitical game of super powers, and this fact is proved by the Armenian leadership`s attitude towards regional geopolitical processes.

The US` and Russia`s South Caucasus policy: A passive role for Armenia

A close examination of the regional policy of Washington and Moscow shows that Armenia has a minor role to play here. This small country is isolated from all serious geopolitical plans, including those related to the region. No one speaks of what role Armenia can play in dealing with the Iranian issue.

Therefore, Serzh Sargsyan is trying to artificially emphasize the Iranian issue in the context of "Armenia`s important geopolitical function in the region". He claims that starting military operations against Iran will lead to the outbreak of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But previously he was saying that Azerbaijan had been preparing for military intervention, and he had not even forgotten to use "powerful Armenian army" expression.

Sargsyan`s logic is completely confusing and uncertain. Firstly, if Azerbaijan prepares for war, the Iranian issue has nothing to do with this because Baku does not need somene`s attacking someone else to liberate its occupied lands. Secondly, if Armenia is powerful militarily, then why is it afraid from Azerbaijan?

It looks like any military operation against Iran will work for Armenia`s advantage as "powerful Armenian army" then will have a chance to occupy more lands. But Sargsyan makes an appeal to the super powers not to let the war break out, claiming that Armenia "is ready to make mutual concessions" (2).

And it`s quite clear what threw the Armenian leader into confusion. The US and Russia are forced to be more accurate with their regional policy as they must take Azerbaijan`s interests into account. As regards the Iranian issue the Armenian factor has zero impact here because there are no geopolitical reasons for Washington`s or Moscow`s taking Armenia for serious. Instead, the two have a similar feature in their approach to the Armenian factor: both the USA and Russia use Yerevan as their outpost.

And what makes Sargsyan`s situation more complicated is Azerbaijan`s growing international prestige. Baku is carrying out very promising socio-economic and cultural programs in the region. Azerbaijan`s regional policy has been more effective than that of other regional states. The picture is clearer against a background of recent steps taken by Georgia`s new leadership.

Armenia`s performance is extremely bad in this context. Unable to offer any regional program, official Yerevan is just slandering its neighbors. The country has isolated itself and is now on the verge of chaos.

In fact, Washington and Moscow know very well what Yerevan`s actual geopolitical value is. The USA and Russia can now only think of how to swallow this "lean piece" – Armenia. And this will happen when major geopolitical processes in the region will end, and Armenia will not be able to be active until the game is over.

Serzh Sargsyan may strike a pose of a "political dragon" in order to keep his power, and he can deceive the Armenian electorate this way. But real politics is quite a different thing. It doesn`t accept false characters. The Armenian President`s visit to Paris proved this once again.

According to the Armenian media reports, no serious French newspaper or news agency has spotlighted Sargsyan`s visit. Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper wrote that Francois Hollande only reiterated his promises with respect to notorious "Armenian genocide" during his meeting with the Armenian leader (3).

Probably, Serzh Sargsyan is healthy. 1in.am website even said that the Armenian leader was able to perform "a political striptease" (4). But this doesn`t prevent him from being a marionette. Anyway, Sargsyan is capable of combining these two features.

Newtimes.az

Sources

Карен Акопджанян. Серж Саргсян использует свой последний "патрон". 7or.am, 13 ноября 2012. URL: http://www.7or.am/ru/news/view/42849/.

Рауф Миркадыров. Серж Саркисян напуган. Зеркало, 12 ноября 2012. URL: http://www.zerkalo.az/2012/serzh-sarkisyan-napugan/.

Пресса: Париж-Монако-Баден-Баден? 1in.am, 13 ноября 2012. URL: http://www.1in.am/rus/armenia_apress_23949.html.

Муса Микаелян. Выгодные перспективы политического стриптиза. 1in.am, 12 ноября 2012. URL: http://www.1in.am/rus/armenia_analysis_23894.html.