An artificial tizzy was created around Serzh Sargsyan`s Moscow trip. Some media outlets and analysts tried to portray the Armenian president`s visiting the Kremlin in the context of geopolitical and security issues. But the reality, which generated concrete facts, suggests other aspects.
The destiny of Armenian statehood
Recently there have been media reports that Armenia is inclining towards Europe. Armenian analysts clearly say they see the country`s future in the European Union. They say Serzh Sargsyan started to pay more attention to relations with NATO and European Union in its foreign policy. And Russia could hardly remain indifferent to this.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Armenia in September. But he recently "summoned" (this word is used by several Armenian mass media) Sargsyan to the Kremlin. Experts say it`s no coincidence that the visit took place on August 8. Ruben Megrabian, an expert at the Armenian Centre for Political and International Research, told Ekho Kavkaza radio station that "the destiny of the Armenian statehood is being decided".
Following their meeting the two presidents held a joint press briefing, during which both made positive comments on all issues. However, it was clear that Sargsyan was guided by Putin. After the Armenian leader completed his speech, Putin gave him a topic, saying: "This year Russia`s investment in Armenia made..." And Sargsyan, like a student who responds to his teacher`s question, hurried to answer: "...almost half of the total volume of foreign investment".
The Russian and Armenian presidents discussed security in the South Caucasus, and prospects for integration within the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. They also focused on prospects for Yerevan`s entering the Customs Union as part of the Eurasian integration. During the briefing the presidents revealed that Russia might offer Armenia a separate model given that they do not have a common border.
Putin`s press service highlighted some points related to Moscow`s policy towards Armenia. The Kremlin continues to regard Yerevan its main partner in the South Caucasus. However, Russia is concerned about Armenia`s inclining towards the West. Some political analysts predict that Russia may deploy additional weapons to its base in Gumru in case the tension around Iran escalates.
Official Yerevan also expressed interest in developing the cooperation with Russia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Sargsyan reaffirmed Armenia`s position on this issue during the briefing in Moscow, He said the Organization played a crucial role in ensuring Armenia`s security. However, there have been reports that official Yerevan took a double position on this issue as well. Sargsyan said Armenia intended to expand its activity within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. At the same time, he takes steps towards developing the country`s relationship with NATO. Politicians are confident that these two lines do not harmonize. And Ukraine`s experience proves that it is very dangerous to make double maneuvers between the West and Russia.
A mysterious solution to gas problem
According to Kommersant newspaper, the Armenian leader said they reached agreement on the issue of gas price too. However, the transcript of Sargsyan`s and Putin`s press statement clearly shows that the Armenian leader was mysterious. He said: "We certainly discussed the price of gas supplied to Armenia, which is one of the important issues on the agenda. I think we achieved mutual understanding concerning the principles of pricing..." This means that the sides are in agreement about the basic principles of gas pricing, but there is not a concrete result. But why?
Obviously, Russia is waiting for Armenia to choose its geo-political line. Official Yerevan`s suspicious moves force the Kremlin to be overcautious. Jamanak newspaper writes that Moscow prefers to work with Robert Kocharian because the former president`s The Prospering Armenia party unanimously supports the idea of Eurasian integration. Putin is very careful when it comes to the issues representing geo-political importance to Russia.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was also discussed, but the presidents did not express any concrete view on the issue. Armenian expert Megrabian and Russian political analyst Pavel Felgenhauer say they do not expect any sensational statement concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
Felgenhauer confirms that the South Caucasus is of greater importance to Russia from the geo-political point of view. In this context, the Iranian and Turkish factor has taken an increasing topicality. Given all these facts Russia`s expressing a concrete position on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute can be irritating. However, Moscow can also hold this issue in store for future maneuvers, particularly, to take – through this conflict - Yerevan in hand.
Moscow`s advice to its outpost
It is clear that Sargsyan`s Moscow visit is not directly related to global geo-political issues. Russia is much more concerned to have a maximum benefit of Armenia through Eurasian integration and cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Moscow wants to persuade its outpost into turning against the West.
Putin tried to show that Armenia was fully dependent on Russia. Russia is likely to strengthen military and technical potential of its bases in Armenia. Plans to conduct military maneuvers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Armenia in autumn give grounds to draw such a conclusion.
Sargsyan`s Moscow visit can hardly contribute to ensuring security in the South Caucasus. By remaining committed to its aggressive foreign policy, official Yerevan continues to make a serious blow to regional stability. And will Sargsyan be elected for another presidential term is another question. Therefore, the Armenian leader will obviously try to preserve his presidency.
Another point is that the attitude towards Sargsyan`s foreign policy within the Armenian society is getting more and more positive than negative. Some even say that the country`s cooperation with Russia is built on unsound and unequal foundations.
In Lragir newspaper, Akop Badalian expresses his concern, saying "Russia will shake Armenia". He says that by increasing the price for gas, on the one hand, and offering Armenia a 1 billion loan, on the other, Moscow maintains a vise-like grip on Armenia. According to Badalian, this is what stands behind the postponement of a conference of Western investments, which had to be held in Yerevan.
As a result, the Armenian president`s another visit to Moscow promises nothing good neither to the Armenian government nor to the South Caucasus. Yerevan is continuing its mysterious policy. And it would be ingenuous to expect the leadership of a country, which is completely dependent on external forces, take an independent political step. Obviously, Armenia will continue to be the region`s headache for long.
Newtimes.az